Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 412
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
225 PM MDT Sun Aug 2 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Eastern New Mexico
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 225 PM until
900 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms this afternoon will pose a
risk for large hail and damaging winds. Thunderstorms should
increase in coverage towards evening with a continued risk for
damaging winds and hail.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles northeast of
Raton NM to 45 miles east of Ruidoso NM. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 410...WW 411...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
34025.
...Bunting
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 412 SEVERE TSTM NM 022025Z - 030300Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
25NE RTN/RATON NM/ - 45E SRR/RUIDOSO NM/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /33WSW TBE - 10NW CME/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 34025.
LAT...LON 36970309 33460371 33460579 36970527
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 412 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 412
VALID 022335Z - 030040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE SAF TO
45 ESE LVS TO 25 WSW TAD.
..BROYLES..08/02/20
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 412
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC005-007-009-011-019-021-027-037-041-057-059-030040-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHAVES COLFAX CURRY
DE BACA GUADALUPE HARDING
LINCOLN QUAY ROOSEVELT
TORRANCE UNION
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 412
VALID 022235Z - 022340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..08/02/20
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 412
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC005-007-009-011-019-021-027-033-037-041-047-057-059-022340-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHAVES COLFAX CURRY
DE BACA GUADALUPE HARDING
LINCOLN MORA QUAY
ROOSEVELT SAN MIGUEL TORRANCE
UNION
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (<5%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
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