Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 427
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
100 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Upper Michigan
Eastern Wisconsin
Lake Michigan
Lake Superior
* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 100 PM until
700 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Scattered severe storms may develop along a cold front
that will push east across the region. A few supercells and
multicell clusters may form with large hail and damaging winds as
the primary hazards.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles east and west of a line from 80 miles northeast of
Escanaba MI to 55 miles south southwest of Oshkosh WI. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 425...WW 426...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
27040.
...Grams
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW7
WW 427 SEVERE TSTM MI WI LM LS 101800Z - 110000Z
AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
80NE ESC/ESCANABA MI/ - 55SSW OSH/OSHKOSH WI/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /62E SAW - 31WNW BAE/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27040.
LAT...LON 46538475 43248788 43249006 46538707
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.
Watch 427 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 427
VALID 102240Z - 102340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W MBL TO
15 NNE MTW TO 15 ENE GRB TO 30 NE GRB TO 45 SSW ESC TO 45 SE ESC
TO 30 NNW TVC.
..COOK..08/10/20
ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 427
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
WIC029-061-102340-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DOOR KEWAUNEE
$$
LMZ541-542-563-565-567-669-102340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI
STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI 5NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI 5NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI 5NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI 5NM OFFSHORE
TO MID LAKE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 427
VALID 102055Z - 102140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW MSN TO
15 NW OSH TO 40 N GRB TO 20 NNE ESC TO 70 E MQT.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1459
..KARSTENS..08/10/20
ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 427
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC041-095-109-153-102140-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DELTA LUCE MENOMINEE
SCHOOLCRAFT
$$
WIC009-015-021-027-029-039-047-061-071-075-083-087-089-117-131-
139-102140-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN CALUMET COLUMBIA
DODGE DOOR FOND DU LAC
GREEN LAKE KEWAUNEE MANITOWOC
MARINETTE OCONTO OUTAGAMIE
OZAUKEE SHEBOYGAN WASHINGTON
WINNEBAGO
$$
LMZ221-248-250-261-521-522-541-542-543-563-565-567-643-669-LSZ251-
102140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
GREEN BAY NORTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK ISLAND
PASSAGE
SEUL CHOIX POINT TO POINT DETOUR MI
5NM EAST OF A LINE FROM FAIRPORT MI TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE 5NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI
ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI
STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI
TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI 5NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI 5NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI 5NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI 5NM OFFSHORE
TO MID LAKE
GRAND MARAIS TO WHITEFISH POINT MI
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 427
VALID 102000Z - 102140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW MSN
TO 30 NNW GRB TO 20 NNW ESC TO 40 E MQT.
..KARSTENS..08/10/20
ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 427
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC003-041-095-109-153-102140-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALGER DELTA LUCE
MENOMINEE SCHOOLCRAFT
$$
WIC009-015-021-027-029-039-047-061-071-075-083-087-089-115-117-
131-139-102140-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN CALUMET COLUMBIA
DODGE DOOR FOND DU LAC
GREEN LAKE KEWAUNEE MANITOWOC
MARINETTE OCONTO OUTAGAMIE
OZAUKEE SHAWANO SHEBOYGAN
WASHINGTON WINNEBAGO
$$
LMZ221-248-250-261-521-522-541-542-543-563-565-567-643-669-LSZ250-
251-102140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
GREEN BAY NORTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK ISLAND
PASSAGE
SEUL CHOIX POINT TO POINT DETOUR MI
5NM EAST OF A LINE FROM FAIRPORT MI TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE 5NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI
ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI
STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI
TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI 5NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI 5NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI 5NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI 5NM OFFSHORE
TO MID LAKE
MUNISING TO GRAND MARAIS MI
GRAND MARAIS TO WHITEFISH POINT MI
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.