Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 429
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
425 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northern and central Indiana
Southwest Lower Michigan
Far northwest Ohio
Lake Michigan
* Effective this Monday afternoon from 425 PM until Midnight EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
mph likely
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A long-lived bowing MCS, that appears to have peaked in
terms of intensity and amplitude of significant severe wind gusts,
will likely produce scattered damaging winds and isolated
significant severe gusts as it spreads into Lower Michigan and
Indiana this evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles east northeast
of Muskegon MI to 20 miles south southwest of Indianapolis IN. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 426...WW 427...WW 428...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
27050.
...Grams
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 429
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
425 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northern and central Indiana
Southwest Lower Michigan
Far northwest Ohio
Lake Michigan
* Effective this Monday afternoon from 425 PM until Midnight EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
mph likely
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A long-lived bowing MCS, that appears to have peaked in
terms of intensity and amplitude of significant severe wind gusts,
will likely produce scattered damaging winds and isolated
significant severe gusts as it spreads into Lower Michigan and
Indiana this evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles east northeast
of Muskegon MI to 20 miles south southwest of Indianapolis IN. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 426...WW 427...WW 428...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
27050.
...Grams
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW9
WW 429 SEVERE TSTM IN MI OH LM 102025Z - 110400Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
40ENE MKG/MUSKEGON MI/ - 20SSW IND/INDIANAPOLIS IN/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /27ENE MKG - 22S IND/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27050.
LAT...LON 43388430 39458530 39458755 43388669
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU9.
Watch 429 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 429
VALID 110040Z - 110140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE BMG TO
15 S MIE TO 20 E FWA TO 25 W JXN TO 15 N GRR TO 30 NNE MKG.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1464
..COOK..08/11/20
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...GRR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 429
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC065-081-135-139-145-110140-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HENRY JOHNSON RANDOLPH
RUSH SHELBY
$$
MIC037-045-057-065-067-075-117-110140-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLINTON EATON GRATIOT
INGHAM IONIA JACKSON
MONTCALM
$$
OHC003-039-051-069-125-137-161-171-110140-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN DEFIANCE FULTON
HENRY PAULDING PUTNAM
VAN WERT WILLIAMS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 429
VALID 102340Z - 110040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW HUF
TO 20 NNW IND TO 25 WNW FWA TO 10 WNW AZO TO 10 SSE MKG TO 40 WNW
MKG.
..COOK..08/10/20
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...GRR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 429
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC001-003-009-011-021-033-035-053-057-059-063-065-069-075-081-
087-095-097-109-113-119-133-135-139-145-151-159-167-169-179-183-
110040-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ALLEN BLACKFORD
BOONE CLAY DE KALB
DELAWARE GRANT HAMILTON
HANCOCK HENDRICKS HENRY
HUNTINGTON JAY JOHNSON
LAGRANGE MADISON MARION
MORGAN NOBLE OWEN
PUTNAM RANDOLPH RUSH
SHELBY STEUBEN TIPTON
VIGO WABASH WELLS
WHITLEY
$$
MIC005-015-023-025-037-045-057-059-065-067-075-077-081-117-121-
139-149-110040-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGAN BARRY BRANCH
CALHOUN CLINTON EATON
GRATIOT HILLSDALE INGHAM
IONIA JACKSON KALAMAZOO
KENT MONTCALM MUSKEGON
OTTAWA ST. JOSEPH
$$
OHC003-039-051-069-125-137-161-171-110040-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN DEFIANCE FULTON
HENRY PAULDING PUTNAM
VAN WERT WILLIAMS
$$
LMZ846-847-872-110040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI
GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI 5NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 429
VALID 102235Z - 102340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..COOK..08/10/20
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...GRR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 429
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC001-003-009-011-015-017-021-023-033-035-039-045-049-053-057-
059-063-065-067-069-075-081-085-087-091-095-097-099-103-107-109-
113-119-121-131-133-135-139-141-145-149-151-157-159-165-167-169-
171-179-181-183-102340-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ALLEN BLACKFORD
BOONE CARROLL CASS
CLAY CLINTON DE KALB
DELAWARE ELKHART FOUNTAIN
FULTON GRANT HAMILTON
HANCOCK HENDRICKS HENRY
HOWARD HUNTINGTON JAY
JOHNSON KOSCIUSKO LAGRANGE
LA PORTE MADISON MARION
MARSHALL MIAMI MONTGOMERY
MORGAN NOBLE OWEN
PARKE PULASKI PUTNAM
RANDOLPH RUSH ST. JOSEPH
SHELBY STARKE STEUBEN
TIPPECANOE TIPTON VERMILLION
VIGO WABASH WARREN
WELLS WHITE WHITLEY
$$
MIC005-015-021-023-025-027-037-045-057-059-065-067-075-077-081-
117-121-139-149-159-102340-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGAN BARRY BERRIEN
BRANCH CALHOUN CASS
CLINTON EATON GRATIOT
HILLSDALE INGHAM IONIA
JACKSON KALAMAZOO KENT
MONTCALM MUSKEGON OTTAWA
ST. JOSEPH VAN BUREN
$$
OHC039-125-161-171-102340-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DEFIANCE PAULDING VAN WERT
WILLIAMS
$$
LMZ043-046-080-844-845-846-847-872-874-876-878-102340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI
MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI
LAKE MICHIGAN MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID-LINE OF LAKE.
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI
SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI
GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI 5NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI 5NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI 5NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (70%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (60%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
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