Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 433
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
610 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northern Minnesota
Eastern North Dakota
* Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 610 PM
until 200 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Storms will continue to develop and intensify near the
North Dakota/Minnesota border vicinity and spread generally eastward
this evening across northern Minnesota. Severe hail and damaging
winds will be the primary hazards, but a tornado is possible,
particularly near the warm front across northern Minnesota.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85
statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles south of Fargo
ND to 50 miles west northwest of International Falls MN. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
25020.
...Guyer
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 433
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
610 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northern Minnesota
Eastern North Dakota
* Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 610 PM
until 200 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Storms will continue to develop and intensify near the
North Dakota/Minnesota border vicinity and spread generally eastward
this evening across northern Minnesota. Severe hail and damaging
winds will be the primary hazards, but a tornado is possible,
particularly near the warm front across northern Minnesota.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85
statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles south of Fargo
ND to 50 miles west northwest of International Falls MN. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
25020.
...Guyer
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW3
WW 433 SEVERE TSTM MN ND 132310Z - 140700Z
AXIS..85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
65S FAR/FARGO ND/ - 50WNW INL/INTERNATIONAL FALLS MN/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 75NM E/W /46S FAR - 43WNW INL/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25020.
LAT...LON 45979859 48839628 48839255 45979505
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU3.
Watch 433 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 433
VALID 140645Z - 140740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW VVV
TO 40 SSW DTL TO 40 NW BRD TO 30 SSE BJI TO 45 W HIB TO 30 SSE
INL TO 30 SE INL.
..GLEASON..08/14/20
ATTN...WFO...FGF...DLH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 433
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC021-035-051-061-071-111-159-167-140740-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CASS CROW WING GRANT
ITASCA KOOCHICHING OTTER TAIL
WADENA WILKIN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 433
VALID 140540Z - 140640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE ABR
TO 35 SW DTL TO 20 SSW DTL TO 25 WSW BJI TO 20 E BJI TO 40 SW INL
TO 30 N INL.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1481
..GLEASON..08/14/20
ATTN...WFO...FGF...DLH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 433
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC005-021-029-035-051-057-061-071-111-159-167-140640-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BECKER CASS CLEARWATER
CROW WING GRANT HUBBARD
ITASCA KOOCHICHING OTTER TAIL
WADENA WILKIN
$$
NDC077-140640-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
RICHLAND
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 433
VALID 140400Z - 140540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE JMS
TO 30 WNW FAR TO 40 NNE FAR TO 25 SSE TVF TO 30 E TVF TO 35 SE
RRT TO 45 NW INL.
..BENTLEY..08/14/20
ATTN...WFO...FGF...DLH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 433
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC005-007-021-027-029-035-051-057-061-071-077-087-107-111-113-
119-125-159-167-140540-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BECKER BELTRAMI CASS
CLAY CLEARWATER CROW WING
GRANT HUBBARD ITASCA
KOOCHICHING LAKE OF THE WOODS MAHNOMEN
NORMAN OTTER TAIL PENNINGTON
POLK RED LAKE WADENA
WILKIN
$$
NDC017-073-077-081-140540-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CASS RANSOM RICHLAND
SARGENT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 433
VALID 140200Z - 140340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1479
..BENTLEY..08/14/20
ATTN...WFO...FGF...DLH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 433
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC005-007-021-027-029-035-051-057-061-071-077-087-089-107-111-
113-119-125-135-159-167-140340-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BECKER BELTRAMI CASS
CLAY CLEARWATER CROW WING
GRANT HUBBARD ITASCA
KOOCHICHING LAKE OF THE WOODS MAHNOMEN
MARSHALL NORMAN OTTER TAIL
PENNINGTON POLK RED LAKE
ROSEAU WADENA WILKIN
$$
NDC017-073-077-081-097-140340-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CASS RANSOM RICHLAND
SARGENT TRAILL
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 433
VALID 140040Z - 140140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BENTLEY..08/14/20
ATTN...WFO...FGF...DLH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 433
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC005-007-021-027-029-035-051-057-061-071-077-087-089-107-111-
113-119-125-135-159-167-140140-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BECKER BELTRAMI CASS
CLAY CLEARWATER CROW WING
GRANT HUBBARD ITASCA
KOOCHICHING LAKE OF THE WOODS MAHNOMEN
MARSHALL NORMAN OTTER TAIL
PENNINGTON POLK RED LAKE
ROSEAU WADENA WILKIN
$$
NDC017-035-073-077-081-097-140140-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CASS GRAND FORKS RANSOM
RICHLAND SARGENT TRAILL
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 433
VALID 132340Z - 140100Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SMITH..08/13/20
ATTN...WFO...FGF...DLH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 433
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC005-007-021-027-029-035-051-057-061-071-077-087-089-107-111-
113-119-125-135-159-167-140100-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BECKER BELTRAMI CASS
CLAY CLEARWATER CROW WING
GRANT HUBBARD ITASCA
KOOCHICHING LAKE OF THE WOODS MAHNOMEN
MARSHALL NORMAN OTTER TAIL
PENNINGTON POLK RED LAKE
ROSEAU WADENA WILKIN
$$
NDC017-035-073-077-081-097-140100-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CASS GRAND FORKS RANSOM
RICHLAND SARGENT TRAILL
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.