Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 438
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
505 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northern Kansas
Southern Nebraska
* Effective this Friday afternoon from 505 PM until Midnight CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Storms will continue to develop south/southwestward along
an advancing cold front across south-central/southeast Nebraska into
northern Kansas. Severe hail and damaging winds are possible where
storms develop late this afternoon into evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles north and south of a line from 85 miles southwest of
Hastings NE to 30 miles east northeast of Beatrice NE. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 436...WW 437...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
33020.
...Guyer
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 438 SEVERE TSTM KS NE 142205Z - 150500Z
AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
85SW HSI/HASTINGS NE/ - 30ENE BIE/BEATRICE NE/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM N/S /42NE HLC - 15N PWE/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 33020.
LAT...LON 40459956 41189622 39739622 39009956
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 438 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 438
VALID 150225Z - 150340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE HLC
TO 40 N RSL TO 25 W CNK TO 5 WSW CNK TO 20 NW MHK.
..BENTLEY..08/15/20
ATTN...WFO...TOP...GID...OAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 438
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC029-123-141-143-150340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLOUD MITCHELL OSBORNE
OTTAWA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 438
VALID 150125Z - 150240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE HLC
TO 55 S EAR TO 35 SSW HSI TO 35 SE HSI TO 40 W BIE TO 5 W BIE TO
30 WNW FNB AND 10 ESE HLC TO 50 N RSL TO 30 NW CNK TO 25 NNE CNK
TO 25 NNE MHK.
..BENTLEY..08/15/20
ATTN...WFO...TOP...GID...OAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 438
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC029-089-123-141-157-163-201-150240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLOUD JEWELL MITCHELL
OSBORNE REPUBLIC ROOKS
WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 438
VALID 150025Z - 150140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE HLC
TO 55 S EAR TO 35 SSW HSI TO 35 SE HSI TO 40 W BIE TO 5 W BIE TO
30 WNW FNB.
..BENTLEY..08/15/20
ATTN...WFO...TOP...GID...OAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 438
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC029-089-117-123-141-147-157-163-183-201-150140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLOUD JEWELL MARSHALL
MITCHELL OSBORNE PHILLIPS
REPUBLIC ROOKS SMITH
WASHINGTON
$$
NEC067-095-129-169-150140-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GAGE JEFFERSON NUCKOLLS
THAYER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 438
VALID 142345Z - 150040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N HLC TO
35 S EAR TO 20 ESE HSI TO 40 WSW LNK TO 15 SSE LNK TO 35 WSW SDA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1493
..BENTLEY..08/14/20
ATTN...WFO...TOP...GID...OAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 438
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC029-089-117-123-141-147-157-163-183-201-150040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLOUD JEWELL MARSHALL
MITCHELL OSBORNE PHILLIPS
REPUBLIC ROOKS SMITH
WASHINGTON
$$
NEC035-059-067-095-129-151-169-181-150040-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY FILLMORE GAGE
JEFFERSON NUCKOLLS SALINE
THAYER WEBSTER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
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