Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 439
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
535 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Eastern Minnesota
Western Wisconsin
* Effective this Friday afternoon from 535 PM until Midnight CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Isolated/widely scattered severe thunderstorms will
develop eastward across eastern Minnesota into western Wisconsin
this evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles east northeast
of Brainerd MN to 45 miles southeast of Minneapolis MN. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 436...WW 437...WW 438...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
25020.
...Guyer
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW9
WW 439 SEVERE TSTM MN WI 142235Z - 150500Z
AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
50ENE BRD/BRAINERD MN/ - 45SE MSP/MINNEAPOLIS MN/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM E/W /40W DLH - 39SE MSP/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25020.
LAT...LON 46679210 44419156 44419359 46679421
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU9.
Watch 439 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 439
VALID 150145Z - 150240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE MKT TO
65 ENE STC TO 45 S DLH.
..SPC..08/15/20
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 439
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC025-037-049-079-123-131-137-139-163-150240-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHISAGO DAKOTA GOODHUE
LE SUEUR RAMSEY RICE
ST. LOUIS SCOTT WASHINGTON
$$
WIC005-013-031-033-093-095-109-129-150240-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRON BURNETT DOUGLAS
DUNN PIERCE POLK
ST. CROIX WASHBURN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 439
VALID 150055Z - 150140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE STC
TO 35 ENE STC TO 60 SSW DLH TO 35 WSW DLH.
..SPC..08/15/20
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 439
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC003-017-019-025-037-049-053-059-065-079-115-123-131-137-139-
163-150140-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANOKA CARLTON CARVER
CHISAGO DAKOTA GOODHUE
HENNEPIN ISANTI KANABEC
LE SUEUR PINE RAMSEY
RICE ST. LOUIS SCOTT
WASHINGTON
$$
WIC005-013-031-033-093-095-109-129-150140-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRON BURNETT DOUGLAS
DUNN PIERCE POLK
ST. CROIX WASHBURN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.