Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 441
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
355 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northern Minnesota
Far northeast North Dakota
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 355 PM until
1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Multiple supercells should develop across the Red River
Valley into northwest Minnesota by early evening. Large hail should
be the primary hazard, but a brief tornado or two and locally
damaging winds will also be possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles north
northwest of Grand Forks ND to 85 miles east of Bemidji MN. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
29035.
...Grams
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 441
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
355 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northern Minnesota
Far northeast North Dakota
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 355 PM until
1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Multiple supercells should develop across the Red River
Valley into northwest Minnesota by early evening. Large hail should
be the primary hazard, but a brief tornado or two and locally
damaging winds will also be possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles north
northwest of Grand Forks ND to 85 miles east of Bemidji MN. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
29035.
...Grams
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 441 SEVERE TSTM MN ND 152055Z - 160400Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
20NNW GFK/GRAND FORKS ND/ - 85E BJI/BEMIDJI MN/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /17NNW GFK - 56NW DLH/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..55 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29035.
LAT...LON 49099735 48379311 46649311 47359735
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 441 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 441
VALID 160240Z - 160340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW DTL
TO 10 SE ROX.
..SPC..08/16/20
ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 441
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC007-021-061-071-077-160340-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BELTRAMI CASS ITASCA
KOOCHICHING LAKE OF THE WOODS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 441
VALID 160030Z - 160140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW FAR
TO 5 W ROX.
..SPC..08/16/20
ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 441
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC001-005-007-021-029-035-057-061-071-077-087-089-107-113-119-
125-135-159-160140-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AITKIN BECKER BELTRAMI
CASS CLEARWATER CROW WING
HUBBARD ITASCA KOOCHICHING
LAKE OF THE WOODS MAHNOMEN MARSHALL
NORMAN PENNINGTON POLK
RED LAKE ROSEAU WADENA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 441
VALID 152350Z - 160040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW GFK
TO 25 W ROX.
..SPC..08/15/20
ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 441
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC001-005-007-021-029-035-057-061-071-077-087-089-107-113-119-
125-135-159-160040-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AITKIN BECKER BELTRAMI
CASS CLEARWATER CROW WING
HUBBARD ITASCA KOOCHICHING
LAKE OF THE WOODS MAHNOMEN MARSHALL
NORMAN PENNINGTON POLK
RED LAKE ROSEAU WADENA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 441
VALID 152220Z - 152340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SPC..08/15/20
ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 441
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC001-005-007-021-029-035-057-061-069-071-077-087-089-107-113-
119-125-135-159-152340-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AITKIN BECKER BELTRAMI
CASS CLEARWATER CROW WING
HUBBARD ITASCA KITTSON
KOOCHICHING LAKE OF THE WOODS MAHNOMEN
MARSHALL NORMAN PENNINGTON
POLK RED LAKE ROSEAU
WADENA
$$
NDC035-067-097-099-152340-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GRAND FORKS PEMBINA TRAILL
WALSH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (40%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
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