Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 444
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
145 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Eastern Colorado
Western Kansas
Far southwest Nebraska
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 145 PM until
1000 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Multiple supercells and multicell clusters will spread
south and southeast across eastern Colorado and southwest Nebraska
into western Kansas through this evening. Very large hail and a
brief tornado or two will be the greatest initial risks. With a
time, a larger cluster or MCS should form, with an increasing risk
for severe wind gusts (some may be significant).
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 100
statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles northwest of
Lamar CO to 30 miles southeast of Mccook NE. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 443...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector
35025.
...Grams
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 444
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
145 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Eastern Colorado
Western Kansas
Far southwest Nebraska
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 145 PM until
1000 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Multiple supercells and multicell clusters will spread
south and southeast across eastern Colorado and southwest Nebraska
into western Kansas through this evening. Very large hail and a
brief tornado or two will be the greatest initial risks. With a
time, a larger cluster or MCS should form, with an increasing risk
for severe wind gusts (some may be significant).
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 100
statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles northwest of
Lamar CO to 30 miles southeast of Mccook NE. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 443...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector
35025.
...Grams
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 444 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE 161945Z - 170400Z
AXIS..100 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
50NW LAA/LAMAR CO/ - 30SE MCK/MCCOOK NE/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 85NM N/S /38NW LAA - 26SE MCK/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..3 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 35025.
LAT...LON 40030333 41340018 38450018 37130333
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 444 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 444
VALID 170235Z - 170340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S LIC TO
35 NNW LAA TO 30 NE LAA TO 50 ENE LAA TO 35 NW GCK TO 30 N GCK TO
55 S HLC.
..BENTLEY..08/17/20
ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...BOU...DDC...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 444
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC009-011-061-099-170340-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BACA BENT KIOWA
PROWERS
$$
KSC075-093-187-170340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HAMILTON KEARNY STANTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 444
VALID 170120Z - 170240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW AKO
TO 25 ESE AKO TO 25 NNW GLD TO 10 NE GLD TO 40 ESE GLD TO 30 SW
HLC TO 25 S HLC.
..BENTLEY..08/17/20
ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...BOU...DDC...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 444
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC009-011-017-025-061-063-073-089-099-121-125-170240-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BACA BENT CHEYENNE
CROWLEY KIOWA KIT CARSON
LINCOLN OTERO PROWERS
WASHINGTON YUMA
$$
KSC063-071-075-093-109-171-187-199-203-170240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GOVE GREELEY HAMILTON
KEARNY LOGAN SCOTT
STANTON WALLACE WICHITA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 444
VALID 162355Z - 170040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE AKO
TO 25 W IML TO 5 ENE IML TO 20 S LBF TO 30 SW BBW.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1515
..BENTLEY..08/16/20
ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...BOU...DDC...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 444
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC009-011-017-025-061-063-073-089-095-099-121-125-170040-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BACA BENT CHEYENNE
CROWLEY KIOWA KIT CARSON
LINCOLN OTERO PHILLIPS
PROWERS WASHINGTON YUMA
$$
KSC023-039-063-065-071-075-093-109-137-153-171-179-181-187-193-
199-203-170040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE DECATUR GOVE
GRAHAM GREELEY HAMILTON
KEARNY LOGAN NORTON
RAWLINS SCOTT SHERIDAN
SHERMAN STANTON THOMAS
WALLACE WICHITA
$$
NEC057-087-145-170040-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNDY HITCHCOCK RED WILLOW
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 444
VALID 162300Z - 170040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW IML
TO 15 S LBF TO 25 SSW BBW.
..BENTLEY..08/16/20
ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...BOU...DDC...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 444
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC009-011-017-025-061-063-073-089-095-099-121-125-170040-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BACA BENT CHEYENNE
CROWLEY KIOWA KIT CARSON
LINCOLN OTERO PHILLIPS
PROWERS WASHINGTON YUMA
$$
KSC023-039-063-065-071-075-093-109-137-153-171-179-181-187-193-
199-203-170040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE DECATUR GOVE
GRAHAM GREELEY HAMILTON
KEARNY LOGAN NORTON
RAWLINS SCOTT SHERIDAN
SHERMAN STANTON THOMAS
WALLACE WICHITA
$$
NEC057-087-145-170040-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNDY HITCHCOCK RED WILLOW
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 444
VALID 162205Z - 162340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BENTLEY..08/16/20
ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...BOU...DDC...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 444
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC009-011-017-025-061-063-073-089-095-099-121-125-162340-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BACA BENT CHEYENNE
CROWLEY KIOWA KIT CARSON
LINCOLN OTERO PHILLIPS
PROWERS WASHINGTON YUMA
$$
KSC023-039-063-065-071-075-093-109-137-153-171-179-181-187-193-
199-203-162340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE DECATUR GOVE
GRAHAM GREELEY HAMILTON
KEARNY LOGAN NORTON
RAWLINS SCOTT SHERIDAN
SHERMAN STANTON THOMAS
WALLACE WICHITA
$$
NEC057-087-145-162340-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNDY HITCHCOCK RED WILLOW
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (50%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (60%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.