SEL6

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 456
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   250 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Western New York
     Northern Pennsylvania
     Lake Erie
     Lake Ontario

   * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 250 PM until
     800 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
       inches in diameter possible
     A tornado or two possible

   SUMMARY...Multiple supercells should develop and quickly consolidate
   into a broader east-southeast moving cluster. Higher confidence in
   severe storms exists across the New York portion of the watch.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80
   statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles west northwest
   of Rochester NY to 60 miles south of Elmira NY. For a complete
   depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
   (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
   favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
   Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
   weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
   warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
   tornadoes.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 454...WW 455...

   AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
   2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
   few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
   29035.

   ...Grams

   SEL6

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 456
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   250 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Western New York
     Northern Pennsylvania
     Lake Erie
     Lake Ontario

   * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 250 PM until
     800 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
       inches in diameter possible
     A tornado or two possible

   SUMMARY...Multiple supercells should develop and quickly consolidate
   into a broader east-southeast moving cluster. Higher confidence in
   severe storms exists across the New York portion of the watch.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80
   statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles west northwest
   of Rochester NY to 60 miles south of Elmira NY. For a complete
   depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
   (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
   favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
   Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
   weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
   warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
   tornadoes.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 454...WW 455...

   AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
   2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
   few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
   29035.

   ...Grams

   WOUS64 KWNS 271845
   WOU6

   BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 456
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   250 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2020

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 456 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
   FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

   NYC003-009-011-013-015-029-037-051-069-097-099-101-121-123-
   280000-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0456.200827T1850Z-200828T0000Z/

   NY 
   .    NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

   ALLEGANY             CATTARAUGUS         CAYUGA              
   CHAUTAUQUA           CHEMUNG             ERIE                
   GENESEE              LIVINGSTON          ONTARIO             
   SCHUYLER             SENECA              STEUBEN             
   WYOMING              YATES               


   PAC015-023-035-047-069-079-081-083-105-113-117-123-131-280000-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0456.200827T1850Z-200828T0000Z/

   PA 
   .    PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

   BRADFORD             CAMERON             CLINTON             
   ELK                  LACKAWANNA          LUZERNE             
   LYCOMING             MCKEAN              POTTER              
   SULLIVAN             TIOGA               WARREN              
   WYOMING              


   LEZ020-040-041-061-LOZ030-280000-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0456.200827T1850Z-200828T0000Z/

   CW 

   .    ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

   UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR 

   RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK NY 

   DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO NY 

   RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY EXTENDING FROM 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
   US-CANADIAN BORDER 

   LOWER NIAGARA RIVER 

   ATTN...WFO...BUF...CLE...BGM...CTP...

   SAW6 
   WW 456 SEVERE TSTM NY PA LE LO 271850Z - 280000Z
   AXIS..80 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
   30WNW ROC/ROCHESTER NY/ - 60S ELM/ELMIRA NY/
   ..AVIATION COORDS.. 70NM E/W /28NE BUF - 50ESE SLT/
   HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
   MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29035.

   LAT...LON 43277662 41297536 41297844 43277981

   THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA.  FOR A
   COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
   FOR WOU6.

Watch 456 Status Report Messages:

STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 456

VALID 272320Z - 280040Z

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE IPT TO
40 SE ELM TO 35 ESE BGM.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1600

..JEWELL..08/27/20

ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...CTP...CLE...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WS 456 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

PAC015-069-079-113-131-280040-

PA 
.    PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BRADFORD	     LACKAWANNA 	 LUZERNE	     
SULLIVAN	     WYOMING		 
$$


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$

STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 456

VALID 272130Z - 272240Z

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W ERI TO
20 SE ERI TO 20 S JHW TO 30 NNE BFD TO 50 SE BUF TO 35 SSW ROC TO
25 SSW ROC TO 20 SSE ROC TO 25 WNW ITH TO 10 E ITH.

..JEWELL..08/27/20

ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...CTP...CLE...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WS 456 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

NYC003-015-051-069-097-099-101-123-272240-

NY 
.    NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALLEGANY	     CHEMUNG		 LIVINGSTON	     
ONTARIO 	     SCHUYLER		 SENECA 	     
STEUBEN 	     YATES		 
$$


PAC015-023-035-047-069-079-081-083-105-113-117-123-131-272240-

PA 
.    PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BRADFORD	     CAMERON		 CLINTON	     
ELK		     LACKAWANNA 	 LUZERNE	     
LYCOMING	     MCKEAN		 POTTER 	     
SULLIVAN	     TIOGA		 WARREN 	     
WYOMING 	     
$$


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$

STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 456

VALID 272130Z - 272240Z

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W ERI TO
20 SE ERI TO 20 S JHW TO 30 NNE BFD TO 50 SE BUF TO 35 SSW ROC TO
25 SSW ROC TO 20 SSE ROC TO 25 WNW ITH TO 10 E ITH.

..JEWELL..08/27/20

ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...CTP...CLE...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WS 456 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

NYC003-015-051-069-097-099-101-123-272240-

NY 
.    NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALLEGANY	     CHEMUNG		 LIVINGSTON	     
ONTARIO 	     SCHUYLER		 SENECA 	     
STEUBEN 	     YATES		 
$$


PAC015-023-035-047-069-079-081-083-105-113-117-123-131-272240-

PA 
.    PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BRADFORD	     CAMERON		 CLINTON	     
ELK		     LACKAWANNA 	 LUZERNE	     
LYCOMING	     MCKEAN		 POTTER 	     
SULLIVAN	     TIOGA		 WARREN 	     
WYOMING 	     
$$


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$

STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 456

VALID 272035Z - 272140Z

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW JHW
TO 25 ENE BUF TO 30 NW SYR.

..SQUITIERI..08/27/20

ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...CTP...CLE...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WS 456 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

NYC003-009-011-013-015-029-037-051-069-097-099-101-121-123-
272140-

NY 
.    NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALLEGANY	     CATTARAUGUS	 CAYUGA 	     
CHAUTAUQUA	     CHEMUNG		 ERIE		     
GENESEE 	     LIVINGSTON 	 ONTARIO	     
SCHUYLER	     SENECA		 STEUBEN	     
WYOMING 	     YATES		 
$$


PAC015-023-035-047-069-079-081-083-105-113-117-123-131-272140-

PA 
.    PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BRADFORD	     CAMERON		 CLINTON	     
ELK		     LACKAWANNA 	 LUZERNE	     
LYCOMING	     MCKEAN		 POTTER 	     
SULLIVAN	     TIOGA		 WARREN 	     
WYOMING 	     
$$


LEZ040-041-061-272140-

CW 

.    ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK NY 

DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO NY 

RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY EXTENDING FROM 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER 

$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$

STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 456

VALID 271955Z - 272045Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

..SMITH..08/27/20

ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...CTP...CLE...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WS 456 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

NYC003-009-011-013-015-029-037-051-069-097-099-101-121-123-
272045-

NY 
.    NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALLEGANY	     CATTARAUGUS	 CAYUGA 	     
CHAUTAUQUA	     CHEMUNG		 ERIE		     
GENESEE 	     LIVINGSTON 	 ONTARIO	     
SCHUYLER	     SENECA		 STEUBEN	     
WYOMING 	     YATES		 
$$


PAC015-023-035-047-069-079-081-083-105-113-117-123-131-272045-

PA 
.    PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BRADFORD	     CAMERON		 CLINTON	     
ELK		     LACKAWANNA 	 LUZERNE	     
LYCOMING	     MCKEAN		 POTTER 	     
SULLIVAN	     TIOGA		 WARREN 	     
WYOMING 	     
$$


LEZ020-040-041-061-LOZ030-272045-

CW 

.    ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

LOWER NIAGARA RIVER 

UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR 

RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK NY 

DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO NY 

RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY EXTENDING FROM 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER 

$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$

STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 456

VALID 271910Z - 272000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

..SMITH..08/27/20

ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...CTP...CLE...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WS 456 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

NYC003-009-011-013-015-029-037-051-069-097-099-101-121-123-
272000-

NY 
.    NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALLEGANY	     CATTARAUGUS	 CAYUGA 	     
CHAUTAUQUA	     CHEMUNG		 ERIE		     
GENESEE 	     LIVINGSTON 	 ONTARIO	     
SCHUYLER	     SENECA		 STEUBEN	     
WYOMING 	     YATES		 
$$


PAC015-023-035-047-069-079-081-083-105-113-117-123-131-272000-

PA 
.    PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BRADFORD	     CAMERON		 CLINTON	     
ELK		     LACKAWANNA 	 LUZERNE	     
LYCOMING	     MCKEAN		 POTTER 	     
SULLIVAN	     TIOGA		 WARREN 	     
WYOMING 	     
$$


LEZ020-040-041-061-LOZ030-272000-

CW 

.    ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

LOWER NIAGARA RIVER 

UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR 

RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK NY 

DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO NY 

RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY EXTENDING FROM 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER 

$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$

Please visit the National Weather Service Interactive Weather Information Network (IWIN) for more information on the warnings.

For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch (listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster. The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2% to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities), "Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%. High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of an increased threat for a particular event.