Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 495
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
700 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western Upper Michigan
Lake Superior
* Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 700 PM
until 100 AM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms have begun to form along the shores of Lake
Superior, along a warm front. These storms will track toward the
Keweenaw Peninsula this evening, with a risk large hail, damaging
winds, and perhaps a tornado.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40
statute miles east and west of a line from 75 miles southwest of
Houghton MI to 35 miles north northwest of Houghton MI. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
25030.
...Hart
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 495
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
700 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western Upper Michigan
Lake Superior
* Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 700 PM
until 100 AM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms have begun to form along the shores of Lake
Superior, along a warm front. These storms will track toward the
Keweenaw Peninsula this evening, with a risk large hail, damaging
winds, and perhaps a tornado.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40
statute miles east and west of a line from 75 miles southwest of
Houghton MI to 35 miles north northwest of Houghton MI. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
25030.
...Hart
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW5
WW 495 SEVERE TSTM MI LS 252300Z - 260500Z
AXIS..40 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
75SW CMX/HOUGHTON MI/ - 35NNW CMX/HOUGHTON MI/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 35NM E/W /46N RHI - 49SSE YQT/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.
LAT...LON 46399043 47638963 47638791 46398875
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU5.
Watch 495 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 495
VALID 260230Z - 260340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE IWD
TO 40 SSW CMX TO 20 S CMX.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1715.
..KERR..09/26/20
ATTN...WFO...MQT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 495
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC053-083-260340-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GOGEBIC KEWEENAW
$$
LSZ245-260340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
MANITOU ISLAND TO POINT ISABELLE MI
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 495
VALID 260155Z - 260240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N IWD TO
35 WSW CMX TO 45 NE CMX.
..KERR..09/26/20
ATTN...WFO...MQT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 495
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC053-061-083-131-260240-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GOGEBIC HOUGHTON KEWEENAW
ONTONAGON
$$
LSZ240-241-242-244-245-246-260240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
SAXON HARBOR WI TO BLACK RIVER MI
BLACK RIVER TO ONTONAGON MI
ONTONAGON TO UPPER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL MI
EAGLE RIVER TO MANITOU ISLAND MI
MANITOU ISLAND TO POINT ISABELLE MI
POINT ISABELLE TO LOWER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL MI
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 495
VALID 260040Z - 260140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..09/26/20
ATTN...WFO...MQT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 495
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC053-061-083-131-260140-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GOGEBIC HOUGHTON KEWEENAW
ONTONAGON
$$
LSZ240-241-242-243-244-245-246-263-264-260140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
SAXON HARBOR WI TO BLACK RIVER MI
BLACK RIVER TO ONTONAGON MI
ONTONAGON TO UPPER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL MI
UPPER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL TO EAGLE RIVER MI
EAGLE RIVER TO MANITOU ISLAND MI
MANITOU ISLAND TO POINT ISABELLE MI
POINT ISABELLE TO LOWER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL MI
LAKE SUPERIOR FROM SAXON HARBOR WI TO UPPER ENTRANCE TO PORTAGE
CANAL MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER INCLUDING ISLE
ROYAL NATIONAL PARK
LAKE SUPERIOR FROM UPPER ENTRANCE TO PORTAGE CANAL TO MANITOU
ISLAND MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
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