Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 152
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 PM CDT Thu May 6 2021
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northeast Arkansas
Southern Illinois
Far southwest Indiana
Western Kentucky
Southeast Missouri
Western Tennessee
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 1235 PM
until 600 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Multiple lower-topped supercells should develop within a
cluster of thunderstorms spreading east-southeast across the
Mid-Mississippi into the Lower Ohio Valleys. Large hail and damaging
winds should be the primary hazards.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles east northeast
of Mount Vernon IL to 35 miles east southeast of Jonesboro AR. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector
29035.
...Grams
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 152 SEVERE TSTM AR IL IN KY MO TN 061735Z - 062300Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
40ENE MVN/MOUNT VERNON IL/ - 35ESE JBR/JONESBORO AR/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /42NNW PXV - 35N MEM/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..65 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29035.
LAT...LON 38538708 35638901 35639114 38538930
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 152 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 152
VALID 062020Z - 062140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 554
..MOSIER..05/06/21
ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...PAH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 152
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC021-031-035-037-055-067-075-093-111-121-062140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN
CROSS GREENE JACKSON
LAWRENCE MISSISSIPPI POINSETT
RANDOLPH
$$
ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-181-
185-191-193-199-062140-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER EDWARDS FRANKLIN
GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN
JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON
MASSAC PERRY POPE
PULASKI SALINE UNION
WABASH WAYNE WHITE
WILLIAMSON
$$
INC051-129-163-062140-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GIBSON POSEY VANDERBURGH
$$
KYC007-033-035-039-055-075-083-101-105-139-143-145-157-221-225-
233-062140-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CALDWELL CALLOWAY
CARLISLE CRITTENDEN FULTON
GRAVES HENDERSON HICKMAN
LIVINGSTON LYON MCCRACKEN
MARSHALL TRIGG UNION
WEBSTER
$$
MOC017-023-031-035-069-133-143-155-157-181-201-207-223-062140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU
CARTER DUNKLIN MISSISSIPPI
NEW MADRID PEMISCOT PERRY
RIPLEY SCOTT STODDARD
WAYNE
$$
TNC017-033-045-047-053-069-075-079-095-097-113-131-157-167-183-
062140-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARROLL CROCKETT DYER
FAYETTE GIBSON HARDEMAN
HAYWOOD HENRY LAKE
LAUDERDALE MADISON OBION
SHELBY TIPTON WEAKLEY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (40%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
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