Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 207
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
300 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Upper Michigan
Northeast Wisconsin
Lake Michigan
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 300 PM until
900 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Multiple corridors of strong/severe thunderstorm
development will continue to occur across north-central/northeast
Wisconsin into Upper Michigan within a moderately to strongly
unstable environment. Damaging winds and hail are possible with the
most intense activity.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 95
statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles west northwest
of Marquette MI to 30 miles southeast of Mosinee WI. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 205...WW 206...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
25025.
...Guyer
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW7
WW 207 SEVERE TSTM MI WI LM 122000Z - 130200Z
AXIS..95 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
20WNW MQT/MARQUETTE MI/ - 30SE CWA/MOSINEE WI/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 80NM E/W /30NW SAW - 45W GRB/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25025.
LAT...LON 46628596 44468731 44469117 46628996
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.
Watch 207 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 207
VALID 130025Z - 130140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE VOK
TO 20 NW AUW TO 20 SE RHI TO 40 ESE ESC.
..MOORE..05/13/22
ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...ARX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 207
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
WIC009-067-073-075-078-083-087-097-115-135-130140-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN LANGLADE MARATHON
MARINETTE MENOMINEE OCONTO
OUTAGAMIE PORTAGE SHAWANO
WAUPACA
$$
LMZ521-522-130140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 207
VALID 122325Z - 130040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE LSE
TO 15 NW AUW TO 25 SW IMT TO 40 E ESC.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 740
..MOORE..05/12/22
ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...ARX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 207
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
WIC009-067-073-075-078-083-087-097-115-135-141-130040-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN LANGLADE MARATHON
MARINETTE MENOMINEE OCONTO
OUTAGAMIE PORTAGE SHAWANO
WAUPACA WOOD
$$
LMZ521-522-130040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 207
VALID 122225Z - 122340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E EAU TO
30 NNW AUW TO 10 NE RHI TO 35 NE MQT.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 740
..MOORE..05/12/22
ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...ARX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 207
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC003-041-043-103-109-153-122340-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALGER DELTA DICKINSON
MARQUETTE MENOMINEE SCHOOLCRAFT
$$
WIC009-037-041-067-069-073-075-078-083-087-097-115-135-141-
122340-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN FLORENCE FOREST
LANGLADE LINCOLN MARATHON
MARINETTE MENOMINEE OCONTO
OUTAGAMIE PORTAGE SHAWANO
WAUPACA WOOD
$$
LMZ221-521-522-122340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
GREEN BAY NORTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK ISLAND
PASSAGE
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 207
VALID 122145Z - 122240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MOORE..05/12/22
ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...ARX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 207
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC003-013-041-043-053-061-071-103-109-131-153-122240-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALGER BARAGA DELTA
DICKINSON GOGEBIC HOUGHTON
IRON MARQUETTE MENOMINEE
ONTONAGON SCHOOLCRAFT
$$
WIC009-037-041-067-069-073-075-078-083-085-087-097-115-119-125-
135-141-122240-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN FLORENCE FOREST
LANGLADE LINCOLN MARATHON
MARINETTE MENOMINEE OCONTO
ONEIDA OUTAGAMIE PORTAGE
SHAWANO TAYLOR VILAS
WAUPACA WOOD
$$
LMZ221-521-522-122240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
GREEN BAY NORTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK ISLAND
PASSAGE
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 207
VALID 122055Z - 122140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..WENDT..05/12/22
ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...ARX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 207
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC003-013-041-043-053-061-071-103-109-131-153-122140-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALGER BARAGA DELTA
DICKINSON GOGEBIC HOUGHTON
IRON MARQUETTE MENOMINEE
ONTONAGON SCHOOLCRAFT
$$
WIC009-037-041-067-069-073-075-078-083-085-087-097-115-119-125-
135-141-122140-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN FLORENCE FOREST
LANGLADE LINCOLN MARATHON
MARINETTE MENOMINEE OCONTO
ONEIDA OUTAGAMIE PORTAGE
SHAWANO TAYLOR VILAS
WAUPACA WOOD
$$
LMZ221-521-522-122140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
GREEN BAY NORTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK ISLAND
PASSAGE
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.