Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 235
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
325 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Eastern New Mexico
Western Oklahoma Panhandle
Northwest Texas
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 325 PM
until 1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Initial supercells are developing over the Raton Mesa and
will likely form into a southeast-moving cluster this evening. More
isolated supercells will be possible southward towards the Permian
Basin. Very large hail and eventually severe wind gusts will be the
main threat. A tornado or two will be most likely in the
east-central New Mexico to southwest Texas Panhandle region in the
early evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles north northwest
of Clayton NM to 40 miles southeast of Hobbs NM. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
29025.
...Grams
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW5
WW 235 SEVERE TSTM NM OK TX 242025Z - 250300Z
AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
30NNW CAO/CLAYTON NM/ - 40SE HOB/HOBBS NM/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /28SSE TBE - 32WNW MAF/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..3 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..65 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29025.
LAT...LON 36840236 32270179 32270368 36840435
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU5.
Watch 235 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 235
VALID 250145Z - 250240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW TCC TO
15 ESE TCC TO 10 WNW DHT TO 15 SW EHA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 860
..THORNTON..05/25/23
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...AMA...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 235
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC009-025-041-250240-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CURRY LEA ROOSEVELT
$$
TXC003-017-069-079-117-165-189-205-219-279-341-359-369-375-381-
421-437-445-501-250240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDREWS BAILEY CASTRO
COCHRAN DEAF SMITH GAINES
HALE HARTLEY HOCKLEY
LAMB MOORE OLDHAM
PARMER POTTER RANDALL
SHERMAN SWISHER TERRY
YOAKUM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 235
VALID 250045Z - 250140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW TCC
TO 15 NNW TCC TO 25 WSW SPD.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 859
..THORNTON..05/25/23
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...AMA...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 235
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC009-025-037-041-250140-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CURRY LEA QUAY
ROOSEVELT
$$
OKC025-250140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CIMARRON
$$
TXC003-017-069-079-111-117-165-189-205-219-279-341-359-369-375-
381-421-437-445-501-250140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDREWS BAILEY CASTRO
COCHRAN DALLAM DEAF SMITH
GAINES HALE HARTLEY
HOCKLEY LAMB MOORE
OLDHAM PARMER POTTER
RANDALL SHERMAN SWISHER
TERRY YOAKUM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 235
VALID 242320Z - 250040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 858
..THORNTON..05/24/23
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...AMA...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 235
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC009-021-025-037-041-047-059-250040-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CURRY HARDING LEA
QUAY ROOSEVELT SAN MIGUEL
UNION
$$
OKC025-250040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CIMARRON
$$
TXC003-017-069-079-111-117-165-189-205-219-279-341-359-369-375-
381-421-437-445-501-250040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDREWS BAILEY CASTRO
COCHRAN DALLAM DEAF SMITH
GAINES HALE HARTLEY
HOCKLEY LAMB MOORE
OLDHAM PARMER POTTER
RANDALL SHERMAN SWISHER
TERRY YOAKUM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (60%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.