Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 55
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
135 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western New York
Lake Erie
Lake Ontario
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until
700 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Bands of thunderstorms will move quickly northeastward
across western New York this afternoon and early evening. Scattered
damaging winds, with peak gusts up to 60-70 mph, should be the main
threat. A brief tornado or two may also occur.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles northwest of
Rochester NY to 45 miles east southeast of Jamestown NY. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 51...WW 52...WW 53...WW
54...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 350. Mean storm motion vector
22045.
...Gleason
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 55
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
135 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western New York
Lake Erie
Lake Ontario
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until
700 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Bands of thunderstorms will move quickly northeastward
across western New York this afternoon and early evening. Scattered
damaging winds, with peak gusts up to 60-70 mph, should be the main
threat. A brief tornado or two may also occur.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles northwest of
Rochester NY to 45 miles east southeast of Jamestown NY. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 51...WW 52...WW 53...WW
54...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 350. Mean storm motion vector
22045.
...Gleason
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW5
WW 55 SEVERE TSTM NY LE LO 161735Z - 162300Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
20NW ROC/ROCHESTER NY/ - 45ESE JHW/JAMESTOWN NY/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /39NE BUF - 31NW SLT/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 350. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22045.
LAT...LON 43327676 41897728 41897961 43327914
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU5.
Watch 55 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 55
VALID 161950Z - 162040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW ELM TO
15 S ROC TO 55 N ROC.
..BENTLEY..03/16/25
ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 55
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NYC007-011-015-023-051-055-067-069-097-099-101-107-109-117-123-
162040-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROOME CAYUGA CHEMUNG
CORTLAND LIVINGSTON MONROE
ONONDAGA ONTARIO SCHUYLER
SENECA STEUBEN TIOGA
TOMPKINS WAYNE YATES
$$
PAC015-069-079-115-131-162040-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRADFORD LACKAWANNA LUZERNE
SUSQUEHANNA WYOMING
$$
LOZ030-043-063-162040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER
HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY
HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 55
VALID 161820Z - 161940Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..LYONS..03/16/25
ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 55
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NYC003-009-013-029-037-051-055-063-069-073-097-099-101-117-121-
123-161940-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGANY CATTARAUGUS CHAUTAUQUA
ERIE GENESEE LIVINGSTON
MONROE NIAGARA ONTARIO
ORLEANS SCHUYLER SENECA
STEUBEN WAYNE WYOMING
YATES
$$
LEZ020-040-041-061-LOZ030-042-043-062-063-161940-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER
NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH NY
HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY
NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER
HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR
RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK NY
DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO NY
RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY EXTENDING FROM 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (70%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (<5%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
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