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Tornado Watch 204 Watch Hazard Probabilities
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Note:  The parallelogram is only an approximation to the watch, the actual watch is defined by the outlines of the counties contained in it.
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes

High (70%)

Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes

Mod (40%)

Probability of 10 or more severe wind events

High (80%)

Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots

High (70%)

Probability of 10 or more severe hail events

High (80%)

Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches

High (80%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

High (>95%)

For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch (listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster. The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2% to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities), "Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%. High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of an increased threat for a particular event.

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