Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 221
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
325 PM CDT Sun May 15 2022
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northwest Arkansas
Eastern Oklahoma
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 325 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 80 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Multiple supercells should develop along the intersection
of remnant convective outflow and surface cyclone. This activity
will tend to propagate south and likely grow upscale into an MCS as
it approaches the Red River later this evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles north of
Muskogee OK to 15 miles east southeast of Durant OK. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 217...WW 218...WW
219...WW 220...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
36030.
...Grams
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 221 SEVERE TSTM AR OK 152025Z - 160300Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
25N MKO/MUSKOGEE OK/ - 15ESE DUA/DURANT OK/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /23ESE TUL - 54ESE ADM/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 36030.
LAT...LON 36039430 33869511 33869720 36039644
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 221 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 221
VALID 160135Z - 160240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW ADM TO
20 W MLC TO 10 NW MKO TO 30 N FYV.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 778
..DEAN..05/16/22
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 221
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC033-047-131-143-160240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CRAWFORD FRANKLIN SEBASTIAN
WASHINGTON
$$
OKC001-005-013-019-021-023-029-061-069-077-079-085-091-095-099-
101-121-127-135-160240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ATOKA BRYAN
CARTER CHEROKEE CHOCTAW
COAL HASKELL JOHNSTON
LATIMER LE FLORE LOVE
MCINTOSH MARSHALL MURRAY
MUSKOGEE PITTSBURG PUSHMATAHA
SEQUOYAH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 221
VALID 160030Z - 160140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE OKC
TO 20 NNE TUL.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 778
..MOORE..05/16/22
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 221
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC033-047-131-143-160140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CRAWFORD FRANKLIN SEBASTIAN
WASHINGTON
$$
OKC001-005-013-019-021-023-029-037-061-063-069-077-079-085-091-
095-099-101-107-111-121-123-125-127-133-135-143-145-160140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ATOKA BRYAN
CARTER CHEROKEE CHOCTAW
COAL CREEK HASKELL
HUGHES JOHNSTON LATIMER
LE FLORE LOVE MCINTOSH
MARSHALL MURRAY MUSKOGEE
OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE PITTSBURG
PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE PUSHMATAHA
SEMINOLE SEQUOYAH TULSA
WAGONER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 221
VALID 152315Z - 160040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 776
..MOORE..05/15/22
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 221
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC033-047-131-143-160040-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CRAWFORD FRANKLIN SEBASTIAN
WASHINGTON
$$
OKC001-005-013-021-023-029-037-061-063-069-077-079-081-091-095-
101-107-111-121-123-125-127-133-135-143-145-160040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ATOKA BRYAN
CHEROKEE CHOCTAW COAL
CREEK HASKELL HUGHES
JOHNSTON LATIMER LE FLORE
LINCOLN MCINTOSH MARSHALL
MUSKOGEE OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE
PITTSBURG PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE
PUSHMATAHA SEMINOLE SEQUOYAH
TULSA WAGONER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 221
VALID 152235Z - 152340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MOORE..05/15/22
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 221
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC033-047-131-143-152340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CRAWFORD FRANKLIN SEBASTIAN
WASHINGTON
$$
OKC001-005-013-021-023-029-037-061-063-069-077-079-081-091-095-
101-107-111-121-123-125-127-133-135-143-145-152340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ATOKA BRYAN
CHEROKEE CHOCTAW COAL
CREEK HASKELL HUGHES
JOHNSTON LATIMER LE FLORE
LINCOLN MCINTOSH MARSHALL
MUSKOGEE OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE
PITTSBURG PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE
PUSHMATAHA SEMINOLE SEQUOYAH
TULSA WAGONER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 221
VALID 152125Z - 152240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MOORE..05/15/22
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 221
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC033-047-131-143-152240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CRAWFORD FRANKLIN SEBASTIAN
WASHINGTON
$$
OKC001-005-013-021-023-029-037-061-063-069-077-079-081-091-095-
101-107-111-121-123-125-127-133-135-143-145-152240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ATOKA BRYAN
CHEROKEE CHOCTAW COAL
CREEK HASKELL HUGHES
JOHNSTON LATIMER LE FLORE
LINCOLN MCINTOSH MARSHALL
MUSKOGEE OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE
PITTSBURG PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE
PUSHMATAHA SEMINOLE SEQUOYAH
TULSA WAGONER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (50%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (60%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.