Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 418
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
230 PM MDT Fri Jul 1 2022
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northwest Nebraska
Western South Dakota
Eastern Wyoming
* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 230 PM until
1000 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...At least a couple supercells should develop from eastern
Wyoming and the Black Hills area before growing upscale into an
east-southeast moving cluster this evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90
statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles east northeast
of Gillette WY to 5 miles west southwest of Alliance NE. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 417...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
29030.
...Grams
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 418 SEVERE TSTM NE SD WY 012030Z - 020400Z
AXIS..90 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
65ENE GCC/GILLETTE WY/ - 5WSW AIA/ALLIANCE NE/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 80NM E/W /71NW RAP - 28ENE BFF/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..65 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29030.
LAT...LON 44690247 42010114 42010464 44690614
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 418 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 418
VALID 020155Z - 020240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..07/02/22
ATTN...WFO...CYS...LBF...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 418
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC007-013-031-045-069-075-123-157-161-165-020240-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANNER BOX BUTTE CHERRY
DAWES GARDEN GRANT
MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF SHERIDAN
SIOUX
$$
SDC007-019-033-047-071-081-093-102-103-020240-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNETT BUTTE CUSTER
FALL RIVER JACKSON LAWRENCE
MEADE OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON
$$
WYC005-009-011-015-027-031-045-020240-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMPBELL CONVERSE CROOK
GOSHEN NIOBRARA PLATTE
WESTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 418
VALID 012335Z - 020040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..07/01/22
ATTN...WFO...CYS...LBF...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 418
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC007-013-031-045-069-075-123-157-161-165-020040-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANNER BOX BUTTE CHERRY
DAWES GARDEN GRANT
MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF SHERIDAN
SIOUX
$$
SDC007-019-033-047-071-081-093-102-103-020040-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNETT BUTTE CUSTER
FALL RIVER JACKSON LAWRENCE
MEADE OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON
$$
WYC005-009-011-015-027-031-045-020040-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMPBELL CONVERSE CROOK
GOSHEN NIOBRARA PLATTE
WESTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 418
VALID 012255Z - 012340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..07/01/22
ATTN...WFO...CYS...LBF...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 418
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC007-013-031-045-069-075-123-157-161-165-012340-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANNER BOX BUTTE CHERRY
DAWES GARDEN GRANT
MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF SHERIDAN
SIOUX
$$
SDC007-019-033-047-071-081-093-102-103-012340-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNETT BUTTE CUSTER
FALL RIVER JACKSON LAWRENCE
MEADE OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON
$$
WYC005-009-011-015-027-031-045-012340-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMPBELL CONVERSE CROOK
GOSHEN NIOBRARA PLATTE
WESTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.