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The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 441
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
300 PM MDT Mon Jul 3 2023
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Far southeast Montana
Western South Dakota
Northern Wyoming
* Effective this Monday afternoon from 300 PM until Midnight MDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 90
mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Multiple scenarios are expected this evening. A couple
supercells should initially develop over the Black Hills and along a
front over southwest South Dakota. Very large hail will be the main
threat with these storms. A fast-moving cluster over northern
Wyoming should develop into an MCS with embedded supercells and
bowing structures spreading across western South Dakota later this
evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles west southwest
of Sheridan WY to 15 miles east northeast of Philip SD. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 438...WW 439...WW 440...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 80 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
27045.
...Grams
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 441 SEVERE TSTM MT SD WY 032100Z - 040600Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
50WSW SHR/SHERIDAN WY/ - 15ENE PHP/PHILIP SD/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM N/S /42WSW SHR - 52WSW PIR/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..3 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..80 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27045.
LAT...LON 45500792 45150132 43120132 43480792
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 441 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #8 ON WW 441
VALID 040445Z - 040540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE DGW
TO 25 E 4BQ.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1416
..GUYER..07/04/23
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...UNR...RIW...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 441
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
SDC007-019-033-047-055-063-071-081-093-095-102-103-105-121-123-
137-040540-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNETT BUTTE CUSTER
FALL RIVER HAAKON HARDING
JACKSON LAWRENCE MEADE
MELLETTE OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON
PERKINS TODD TRIPP
ZIEBACH
$$
WYC011-045-040540-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CROOK WESTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #7 ON WW 441
VALID 040345Z - 040440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N DGW TO
20 E 4BQ.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1416
..GUYER..07/04/23
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...UNR...RIW...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 441
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC011-040440-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARTER
$$
SDC007-019-033-047-055-063-071-081-093-095-102-103-105-121-123-
137-040440-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNETT BUTTE CUSTER
FALL RIVER HAAKON HARDING
JACKSON LAWRENCE MEADE
MELLETTE OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON
PERKINS TODD TRIPP
ZIEBACH
$$
WYC011-045-040440-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CROOK WESTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 441
VALID 040245Z - 040340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N DGW TO
25 NE 4BQ.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1415
..WEINMAN..07/04/23
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...UNR...RIW...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 441
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC011-040340-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARTER
$$
SDC007-019-033-047-055-063-071-081-093-095-102-103-105-121-123-
137-040340-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNETT BUTTE CUSTER
FALL RIVER HAAKON HARDING
JACKSON LAWRENCE MEADE
MELLETTE OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON
PERKINS TODD TRIPP
ZIEBACH
$$
WYC011-045-040340-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CROOK WESTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 441
VALID 040150Z - 040240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE CPR
TO 30 NW 4BQ.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1415
..WEINMAN..07/04/23
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...UNR...RIW...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 441
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC011-075-040240-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARTER POWDER RIVER
$$
SDC007-019-033-047-055-063-071-081-093-095-102-103-105-121-123-
137-040240-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNETT BUTTE CUSTER
FALL RIVER HAAKON HARDING
JACKSON LAWRENCE MEADE
MELLETTE OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON
PERKINS TODD TRIPP
ZIEBACH
$$
WYC005-011-045-040240-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMPBELL CROOK WESTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 441
VALID 040030Z - 040140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE RIW
TO 40 E WRL TO 10 WSW SHR TO 30 ESE BIL.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1413
..WEINMAN..07/04/23
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...UNR...RIW...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 441
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC011-075-040140-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARTER POWDER RIVER
$$
SDC007-019-033-047-055-063-071-081-093-095-102-103-105-121-123-
137-040140-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNETT BUTTE CUSTER
FALL RIVER HAAKON HARDING
JACKSON LAWRENCE MEADE
MELLETTE OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON
PERKINS TODD TRIPP
ZIEBACH
$$
WYC005-011-019-025-033-043-045-040140-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMPBELL CROOK JOHNSON
NATRONA SHERIDAN WASHAKIE
WESTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 441
VALID 032345Z - 040040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE RIW
TO 30 ESE WRL TO 30 SSW SHR TO 50 SSE BIL.
..FLOURNOY..07/03/23
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...UNR...RIW...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 441
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC011-075-040040-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARTER POWDER RIVER
$$
SDC007-019-033-047-055-063-071-081-093-095-102-103-105-121-123-
137-040040-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNETT BUTTE CUSTER
FALL RIVER HAAKON HARDING
JACKSON LAWRENCE MEADE
MELLETTE OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON
PERKINS TODD TRIPP
ZIEBACH
$$
WYC005-011-019-025-033-043-045-040040-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMPBELL CROOK JOHNSON
NATRONA SHERIDAN WASHAKIE
WESTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 441
VALID 032245Z - 032340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW RIW TO
20 SW WRL TO 30 E COD.
..FLOURNOY..07/03/23
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...UNR...RIW...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 441
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC011-075-032340-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARTER POWDER RIVER
$$
SDC007-019-033-047-055-063-071-081-093-095-102-103-105-121-123-
137-032340-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNETT BUTTE CUSTER
FALL RIVER HAAKON HARDING
JACKSON LAWRENCE MEADE
MELLETTE OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON
PERKINS TODD TRIPP
ZIEBACH
$$
WYC003-005-011-017-019-033-043-045-032340-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BIG HORN CAMPBELL CROOK
HOT SPRINGS JOHNSON SHERIDAN
WASHAKIE WESTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 441
VALID 032145Z - 032240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WNW RIW
TO 35 NE COD TO 50 E BIL.
..FLOURNOY..07/03/23
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...UNR...RIW...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 441
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC011-075-032240-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARTER POWDER RIVER
$$
SDC007-019-033-047-055-063-071-081-093-095-102-103-105-121-123-
137-032240-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNETT BUTTE CUSTER
FALL RIVER HAAKON HARDING
JACKSON LAWRENCE MEADE
MELLETTE OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON
PERKINS TODD TRIPP
ZIEBACH
$$
WYC003-005-011-017-019-033-043-045-032240-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BIG HORN CAMPBELL CROOK
HOT SPRINGS JOHNSON SHERIDAN
WASHAKIE WESTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (60%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (40%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.