Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 474
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
240 PM MDT Tue Jul 11 2023
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western North Dakota
Western South Dakota
Northeast Wyoming
* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 240 PM until
900 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase this
afternoon and evening as the airmass across the western Dakotas and
northeast Wyoming continues to destabilize. Moderate buoyancy and
strong vertical shear is in place, with some supercells anticipated.
Large to very large hail and damaging gusts are the primary severe
risks, but a tornado or two is possible as well.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65
statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles south southwest
of Rapid City SD to 50 miles north of Dickinson ND. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 473...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
28030.
...Mosier
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 474
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
240 PM MDT Tue Jul 11 2023
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western North Dakota
Western South Dakota
Northeast Wyoming
* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 240 PM until
900 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase this
afternoon and evening as the airmass across the western Dakotas and
northeast Wyoming continues to destabilize. Moderate buoyancy and
strong vertical shear is in place, with some supercells anticipated.
Large to very large hail and damaging gusts are the primary severe
risks, but a tornado or two is possible as well.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65
statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles south southwest
of Rapid City SD to 50 miles north of Dickinson ND. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 473...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
28030.
...Mosier
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 474 SEVERE TSTM ND SD WY 112040Z - 120300Z
AXIS..65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
60SSW RAP/RAPID CITY SD/ - 50N DIK/DICKINSON ND/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 55NM E/W /49SSW RAP - 40N DIK/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..65 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28030.
LAT...LON 43240480 47520419 47520141 43240221
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 474 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 474
VALID 120155Z - 120240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1500
..THORNTON..07/12/23
ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 474
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC001-007-011-025-033-041-053-087-089-120240-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BILLINGS BOWMAN
DUNN GOLDEN VALLEY HETTINGER
MCKENZIE SLOPE STARK
$$
SDC007-019-033-047-055-063-071-081-093-102-103-105-137-120240-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNETT BUTTE CUSTER
FALL RIVER HAAKON HARDING
JACKSON LAWRENCE MEADE
OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON PERKINS
ZIEBACH
$$
WYC005-011-045-120240-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMPBELL CROOK WESTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 474
VALID 120040Z - 120140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1500
..THORNTON..07/12/23
ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 474
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC001-007-011-025-033-041-053-087-089-120140-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BILLINGS BOWMAN
DUNN GOLDEN VALLEY HETTINGER
MCKENZIE SLOPE STARK
$$
SDC007-019-033-047-055-063-071-081-093-102-103-105-137-120140-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNETT BUTTE CUSTER
FALL RIVER HAAKON HARDING
JACKSON LAWRENCE MEADE
OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON PERKINS
ZIEBACH
$$
WYC005-011-045-120140-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMPBELL CROOK WESTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 474
VALID 112345Z - 120040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..THORNTON..07/11/23
ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 474
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC001-007-011-025-033-041-053-087-089-120040-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BILLINGS BOWMAN
DUNN GOLDEN VALLEY HETTINGER
MCKENZIE SLOPE STARK
$$
SDC007-019-033-047-055-063-071-081-093-102-103-105-137-120040-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNETT BUTTE CUSTER
FALL RIVER HAAKON HARDING
JACKSON LAWRENCE MEADE
OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON PERKINS
ZIEBACH
$$
WYC005-011-045-120040-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMPBELL CROOK WESTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 474
VALID 112245Z - 112340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GUYER..07/11/23
ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 474
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC001-007-011-025-033-041-053-087-089-112340-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BILLINGS BOWMAN
DUNN GOLDEN VALLEY HETTINGER
MCKENZIE SLOPE STARK
$$
SDC007-019-033-047-055-063-071-081-093-102-103-105-137-112340-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNETT BUTTE CUSTER
FALL RIVER HAAKON HARDING
JACKSON LAWRENCE MEADE
OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON PERKINS
ZIEBACH
$$
WYC005-011-045-112340-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMPBELL CROOK WESTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (40%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
@NWSSPC
