Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 689
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
455 PM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western New York
Eastern Ohio
Western Pennsylvania
Northern West Virginia Panhandle
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 455 PM until
1100 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to continue to
develop and intensify through the afternoon and into the evening
across the Watch area. A few of the stronger thunderstorms will
likely acquire supercell characteristics and pose an initial risk
for large hail (1 to 2 inches in diameter) and localized severe
gusts. Upscale growth into a mix of cells and linear segments this
evening will facilitate the severe risk potentially becoming
primarily a damaging wind threat (60 to 70 mph gusts) before this
activity weakens late this evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles north of Buffalo
NY to 35 miles south of Wheeling WV. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
26040.
...Smith
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW9
WW 689 SEVERE TSTM NY OH PA WV 062055Z - 070300Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
30N BUF/BUFFALO NY/ - 35S HLG/WHEELING WV/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /26N BUF - 22SSE AIR/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26040.
LAT...LON 43367754 39667951 39668178 43367992
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU9.
Watch 689 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 689
VALID 070055Z - 070140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE ZZV
TO 15 W DUJ TO 25 ENE BFD.
..GOSS..10/07/24
ATTN...WFO...BUF...CLE...PBZ...CTP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 689
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OHC013-059-081-070140-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BELMONT GUERNSEY JEFFERSON
$$
PAC003-005-019-023-031-033-051-059-063-065-125-129-070140-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGHENY ARMSTRONG BUTLER
CAMERON CLARION CLEARFIELD
FAYETTE GREENE INDIANA
JEFFERSON WASHINGTON WESTMORELAND
$$
WVC009-051-069-070140-
WV
. WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROOKE MARSHALL OHIO
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 689
VALID 062345Z - 070040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE ZZV
TO 10 E FKL TO 25 SSE BUF TO 35 NW ROC.
..GOSS..10/06/24
ATTN...WFO...BUF...CLE...PBZ...CTP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 689
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NYC009-037-073-121-070040-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CATTARAUGUS GENESEE ORLEANS
WYOMING
$$
OHC013-019-029-059-067-081-157-070040-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BELMONT CARROLL COLUMBIANA
GUERNSEY HARRISON JEFFERSON
TUSCARAWAS
$$
PAC003-005-007-019-023-031-033-047-051-053-059-063-065-073-083-
121-123-125-129-070040-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGHENY ARMSTRONG BEAVER
BUTLER CAMERON CLARION
CLEARFIELD ELK FAYETTE
FOREST GREENE INDIANA
JEFFERSON LAWRENCE MCKEAN
VENANGO WARREN WASHINGTON
WESTMORELAND
$$
WVC009-029-051-069-070040-
WV
. WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROOKE HANCOCK MARSHALL
OHIO
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 689
VALID 062240Z - 062340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE CAK TO
15 N FKL TO 15 S BUF TO 40 NNE BUF.
..GOSS..10/06/24
ATTN...WFO...BUF...CLE...PBZ...CTP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 689
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NYC009-013-029-037-063-073-121-062340-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CATTARAUGUS CHAUTAUQUA ERIE
GENESEE NIAGARA ORLEANS
WYOMING
$$
OHC013-019-029-059-067-081-099-151-157-062340-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BELMONT CARROLL COLUMBIANA
GUERNSEY HARRISON JEFFERSON
MAHONING STARK TUSCARAWAS
$$
PAC003-005-007-019-031-047-051-053-059-063-065-073-083-085-121-
123-125-129-062340-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGHENY ARMSTRONG BEAVER
BUTLER CLARION ELK
FAYETTE FOREST GREENE
INDIANA JEFFERSON LAWRENCE
MCKEAN MERCER VENANGO
WARREN WASHINGTON WESTMORELAND
$$
WVC009-029-051-069-062340-
WV
. WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROOKE HANCOCK MARSHALL
OHIO
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.