Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 140811
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0311 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2008
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SWRN AND W TX...SRN HALF
OF NM...AND EXTREME SE AZ...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL TX...SW
OK...CENTRAL NM AND SRN AZ...
...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL JET WILL OVERSPREAD THE SWRN PART OF THE
CONUS. A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE OK/TX PANHANDLE WILL MOVE
ESEWD TO ARKANSAS BY THE END OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD. MEANWHILE...AN
ATTENDANT DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO SURGE EWD ACROSS PARTS OF SRN OK
AND CENTRAL TX DURING THE PERIOD. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE DURING THE LATER HALF OF TODAY. A
SECONDARY SURFACE LOW MAY FORM FARTHER WEST NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS AZ AND NM DURING
THE PERIOD. GIVEN THE POTENT WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYNOPTIC SETUP AND VERY DRY ANTECEDENT SITUATION OF CURED
FUELS...EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR VERY LIKELY ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF SE NM...SWRN AND W TX.
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SWRN AND W TX...SRN HALF
OF NM...AND EXTREME SE AZ...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: EXTREME WINDS...VERY LOW RH...HIGH KBDI
PATTERN RECOGNITION...VERY DRY EXISTING CONDITIONS...AND MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO STRONGLY SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY ACROSS LARGE PARTS OF SE NM...SWRN AND W
TX. WINDS OF 80-85 KT AT 500MB WILL MOVE OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED
REGION TODAY AND RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY STRONG SURFACE
WINDS AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING COMMENCES. VERY LOW RH IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS...STRONG TO EXTREME SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AND
HIGH GUSTS...TEMPERATURES 10-20F ABOVE AVERAGE...AND LONG TERM
DRYNESS WILL LEAD TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AS SURFACE
HEATING STEEPENS LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING WILL RESULT IN THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT
TO THE SURFACE. SUSTAINED WLY SURFACE WINDS OF 30 TO 45 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 45 TO 70 MPH ARE EXPECTED. AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH
PASSES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM A WLY TO
WNWLY DIRECTION.
THESE CONDITIONS CAN PROMOTE RAPID FIRE GROWTH AND VERY FAST
WIND-DRIVEN WILDFIRES LEADING TO AN ACTIVE...AND PERHAPS DANGEROUS
FIRE WEATHER DAY.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - MUCH OF CENTRAL TX...SW OK...CENTRAL
NM AND SRN AZ...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY STRONG WINDS...VERY LOW RH...LONG TERM
DRYNESS
LESS EXTREME CONDITIONS SHOULD BE PREVALENT ACROSS A LARGE AREA OF
THE SRN PLAINS AND SW U.S. DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WILL
SET THE BACKGROUND FOR A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER SETUP. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE...THEREBY CAUSING THE WINDS
TO SHIFT FROM NEAR WLY TO A MORE NLY COMPONENT WITH SOME RH
RECOVERY. MEANWHILE...A DRYLINE WILL SURGE EWD ACROSS PARTS OF TX
AND OK WITH RAPID DRYING OCCURRING CONCURRENTLY WITH VERY STRONG WLY
WINDS. WARM TEMPERATURES AND VERY LOW RH VALUES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS WILL BE PREVALENT AT TIMES ACROSS THE REGION.
STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
PROMOTE DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...RESULTING IN THE DOWNWARD
TRANSFER OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT TO THE SURFACE WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 35 TO 50 MPH. IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTS...MODEL OUTPUT
SUGGESTS THAT STRONG SUSTAINED WLY SURFACE WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH
WILL DEVELOP.
A SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE EXTREME NRN PART OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND INTO SW OK
BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY DUE TO DIFFERING SURFACE LOW TRACKS SUGGESTED
BY MODEL OUTPUT. ATTM...WILL LEAN TOWARDS A MORE SRN SOLUTION DUE
TO MODEL CONSENSUS AND THEREFORE DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE CRITICAL
THREAT TO REACH WELL INTO OK AND INTO THE OK PANHANDLE.
..SMITH/CARBIN.. 03/14/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 140857
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2008
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SE AZ...SRN NM...FAR WEST TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE E
COAST ON SATURDAY /DAY 2/. IN WAKE OF THIS DEPARTING
SYSTEM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. MEANWHILE...UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES WILL DIG ON THE BACKSIDE
OF A DEVELOPING WRN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE LEAD UPPER AIR
IMPULSE WILL APPROACH THE SW DESERTS ON SATURDAY.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SE AZ...SRN NM...FAR WEST TX...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH...LONG TERM DRYNESS
MUCH LESS CONDUCIVE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ON
SATURDAY /DAY 2/ COMPARED TO THE DAY 1 SCENARIO. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MORE CONFINED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA ACROSS
PARTS OF SE AZ...SRN NM AND FAR WEST TX. LOW RH VALUES /TEENS/ ARE
ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH AMPLE AFTERNOON
SURFACE HEATING /HIGHS 65 TO 70/...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD DEVELOP. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH MAY BE
BRIEFLY ENHANCED BY THE MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE JUXTAPOSITION OF
SUSTAINED WINDS AND RH CRITERIA...BUT ATTM...INDICATIONS ARE FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD BE MET.
..SMITH.. 03/14/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...