Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 191631
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 AM CDT SAT JUN 19 2010
VALID 191700Z - 201200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NRN AZ...FAR SRN UT...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF W CNTRL/SWRN CO...
UPGRADED PORTIONS OF SWRN CO TO A CRITICAL RISK AREA DUE TO HIGH
WINDS AND ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS. A SLIGHT EXPANSION NWD WAS MADE
TO THE EXISTING CRITICAL RISK AREA OVER FAR SRN UT.
...NRN AZ...FAR SRN UT...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY
OVER NRN AZ AND FAR SRN UT. MORNING RAOB WIND DATA DEPICT A BELT OF
MODERATELY STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS /30 KTS AT 700 MB PER 12Z FGZ
RAOB/ OVER NRN AZ. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES WELL-MIXED
...SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 35 MPH.
...PORTIONS OF W CNTRL/SWRN CO...
SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING STRONG/GUSTY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF SWRN CO...AND COMBINED WITH
ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA...AN UPGRADE TO A CRITICAL
RISK AREA IS WARRANTED. ZONE OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW /40-50 KTS
AT 500 MB/ IS POSITIONED OVER ERN UT/WRN CO. A DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER /MIXING HEIGHTS TO AROUND 600 MB/ WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL DEVELOP...WITH EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSPORT TOWARDS THE
SFC. CRITICAL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY ON VALLEY
FLOORS AND FOOTHILLS...AS RH VALUES FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
WIND SPEEDS STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 20-25 MPH /GUSTS TO 40 MPH.
...SRN CO...INCLUDING THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...
ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN CO...INCLUDING THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...AS
WINDS STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 15-20 MPH. PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS OVER
THE AREA SHOULD ENHANCE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT...AS RH VALUES DROP
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TODAY.
..ROGERS.. 06/19/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0247 AM CDT SAT JUN 19 2010/
...SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE COAST
OF OREGON...WHILE BROAD TROUGH RESIDES TO ITS S OVER CA AND THE
GREAT BASIN...WITH A RIDGE AMPLIFYING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS. AS A RESULT...BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL
BE MAINTAINED ACROSS SRN CA NEWD ACROSS AZ AND UT...WHICH WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRENGTHENING AFTERNOON SURFACE WINDS ACROSS A
WARM/DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS.
...NRN AZ...FAR SRN UT...
BOTH NAM AND GFS FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATE A 40-50 KT 500 MB SPEED
MAX WILL RESIDE ACROSS NRN AZ AND SRN UT DURING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS /20-25 MPH MEAN FLOW WITHIN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER/ ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DEPICT DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING/STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OCCURRING WITH THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING...LEADING TO AFTERNOON
RH VALUES NEAR 10 PERCENT. THEREFORE...PORTIONS OF NRN AZ AND FAR
SRN UT ARE EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
...SWRN CO EWD TO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...
MID-LEVEL WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER OVER SWRN
CO EWD TO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...COMPARED TO NRN AZ AND SRN UT.
HOWEVER...ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS AFTERNOON RH VALUES FALL TO AROUND 10 PERCENT AND
SURFACE WIND SPEEDS STRENGTHEN TO 15-20 MPH.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 191828
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0128 PM CDT SAT JUN 19 2010
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
NO CHANGES ARE REQUIRED TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. LATEST FORECAST
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE NEAR CRITICAL WIND SPEEDS
/SUSTAINED AROUND 15-20 MPH/ ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN CO PLATEAU AND
EWD INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...WITH LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.
..ROGERS.. 06/19/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0249 AM CDT SAT JUN 19 2010/
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS OREGON ON
SUNDAY...WHILE A BROAD TROUGH CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATELY STRONG
SWLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS POSITIONED TO ITS S OVER THE SWRN
CONUS/GREAT BASIN.
...NRN AZ...SRN UT...NWRN NM...SWRN CO...
FIRE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE ON SUNDAY...WITH BROAD ZONE
OF MODERATELY STRONG /25 KT AT 700 MB...40 KT AT 500 MB/ MID-LEVEL
SWLY FLOW SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION E OF WRN CONUS TROUGH. AS A
RESULT...NEAR CRITICAL WIND SPEEDS AT THE SURFACE ARE ANTICIPATED
WHILE RH VALUES FALL INTO THE LOWER TEENS TO UPPER SINGLE DIGITS.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...