Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL FNUS21 KWNS 191631 DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1131 AM CDT SAT JUN 19 2010 VALID 191700Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NRN AZ...FAR SRN UT... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF W CNTRL/SWRN CO... UPGRADED PORTIONS OF SWRN CO TO A CRITICAL RISK AREA DUE TO HIGH WINDS AND ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS. A SLIGHT EXPANSION NWD WAS MADE TO THE EXISTING CRITICAL RISK AREA OVER FAR SRN UT. ...NRN AZ...FAR SRN UT... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY OVER NRN AZ AND FAR SRN UT. MORNING RAOB WIND DATA DEPICT A BELT OF MODERATELY STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS /30 KTS AT 700 MB PER 12Z FGZ RAOB/ OVER NRN AZ. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES WELL-MIXED ...SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH. ...PORTIONS OF W CNTRL/SWRN CO... SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING STRONG/GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF SWRN CO...AND COMBINED WITH ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA...AN UPGRADE TO A CRITICAL RISK AREA IS WARRANTED. ZONE OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW /40-50 KTS AT 500 MB/ IS POSITIONED OVER ERN UT/WRN CO. A DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER /MIXING HEIGHTS TO AROUND 600 MB/ WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL DEVELOP...WITH EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSPORT TOWARDS THE SFC. CRITICAL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY ON VALLEY FLOORS AND FOOTHILLS...AS RH VALUES FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND WIND SPEEDS STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 20-25 MPH /GUSTS TO 40 MPH. ...SRN CO...INCLUDING THE SAN LUIS VALLEY... ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN CO...INCLUDING THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...AS WINDS STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 15-20 MPH. PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA SHOULD ENHANCE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT...AS RH VALUES DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TODAY. ..ROGERS.. 06/19/2010 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0247 AM CDT SAT JUN 19 2010/ ...SYNOPSIS... CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE COAST OF OREGON...WHILE BROAD TROUGH RESIDES TO ITS S OVER CA AND THE GREAT BASIN...WITH A RIDGE AMPLIFYING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. AS A RESULT...BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS SRN CA NEWD ACROSS AZ AND UT...WHICH WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRENGTHENING AFTERNOON SURFACE WINDS ACROSS A WARM/DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS. ...NRN AZ...FAR SRN UT... BOTH NAM AND GFS FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATE A 40-50 KT 500 MB SPEED MAX WILL RESIDE ACROSS NRN AZ AND SRN UT DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS /20-25 MPH MEAN FLOW WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER/ ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING/STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OCCURRING WITH THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING...LEADING TO AFTERNOON RH VALUES NEAR 10 PERCENT. THEREFORE...PORTIONS OF NRN AZ AND FAR SRN UT ARE EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ...SWRN CO EWD TO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY... MID-LEVEL WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER OVER SWRN CO EWD TO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...COMPARED TO NRN AZ AND SRN UT. HOWEVER...ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS AFTERNOON RH VALUES FALL TO AROUND 10 PERCENT AND SURFACE WIND SPEEDS STRENGTHEN TO 15-20 MPH. ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL FNUS22 KWNS 191828 DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0128 PM CDT SAT JUN 19 2010 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... NO CHANGES ARE REQUIRED TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. LATEST FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE NEAR CRITICAL WIND SPEEDS /SUSTAINED AROUND 15-20 MPH/ ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN CO PLATEAU AND EWD INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...WITH LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. ..ROGERS.. 06/19/2010 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0249 AM CDT SAT JUN 19 2010/ ...SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS OREGON ON SUNDAY...WHILE A BROAD TROUGH CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATELY STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS POSITIONED TO ITS S OVER THE SWRN CONUS/GREAT BASIN. ...NRN AZ...SRN UT...NWRN NM...SWRN CO... FIRE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE ON SUNDAY...WITH BROAD ZONE OF MODERATELY STRONG /25 KT AT 700 MB...40 KT AT 500 MB/ MID-LEVEL SWLY FLOW SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION E OF WRN CONUS TROUGH. AS A RESULT...NEAR CRITICAL WIND SPEEDS AT THE SURFACE ARE ANTICIPATED WHILE RH VALUES FALL INTO THE LOWER TEENS TO UPPER SINGLE DIGITS. ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...