Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Tue May 24 08:16:03 UTC 2011
Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 240815
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0315 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF FAR WRN OK / TX
PANHANDLE-LOW ROLLING PLAINS-CAPROCK-PERMIAN BASIN / ERN PLAINS OF
NM...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WRN OK / MUCH OF NW-W-SW AND WRN
N-CNTRL TX AND NM / NERN AZ...
...SYNOPSIS...
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE SWRN U.S. DESERTS AND THIS FEATURE WILL FURTHER STRENGTHEN AND
CLOSE OFF INTO A MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. VERY STRONG FLOW FIELDS ALOFT WILL MAXIMIZE OVER THE
REGION DURING PEAK HEATING. A SURFACE LOW OVER FAR SERN CO WILL
UNDERGO SUBSTANTIAL DEEPENING AS IT DEVELOPS NEWD INTO CNTRL KS
OVERNIGHT. THIS SURFACE REFLECTION WILL RESULT IN AN INTENSIFYING
LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND BE
CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS. A DRYLINE WILL EXTEND
FROM THE SURFACE LOW SWD TO THE RIO GRANDE AND MIX EWD DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS INTO W-CNTRL OK AND THE WRN PART OF N-CNTRL TX BY LATE
AFTERNOON. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...A FRONTAL ZONE WILL DROP
SWD OVER PARTS OF SERN CO INTO THE OK PANHANDLE VICINITY WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING WINDSHIFT. AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FROM BEHIND THE DRYLINE WWD INTO NERN AZ AND
WRN NM. AN EXTREMELY CRITICAL THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS ERN
NM...MUCH OF WRN TX...AND INTO FAR WRN OK.
...PARTS OF FAR WRN OK / TX PANHANDLE-LOW ROLLING
PLAINS-CAPROCK-PERMIAN BASIN / ERN PLAINS OF NM...
A LOW TO MID LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY ACROSS
THIS REGION WITH 1 KM AGL FLOW STRENGTHENING TO 40-50 KTS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION ALOFT AND
STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL RESULT IN A NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATE FROM THE SURFACE TO H6-H5. THIS WILL BE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF
DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER CIRCULATIONS TRANSPORTING HIGHER MOMENTUM ALOFT
TO THE SURFACE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN INDICATING THAT
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 30 MPH UP TO 40 MPH IN
LOCALIZED AREAS /GUSTS 45-55 MPH/. AN ANTECEDENTLY DRY AIRMASS WILL
ENABLE TEMPS TO WARM QUICKLY FROM NEAR 80 W TO WELL INTO THE 90S E
AND RESULT IN RH FALLING INTO THE 4-8 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THIS
REGION.
...WRN OK / MUCH OF NW-W-SW AND WRN N-CNTRL TX AND NM / NERN AZ...
RECENT MODEL DATA SHOWS A TREND FOR A MORE EWD SOLUTION TO DRYLINE
PLACEMENT ACROSS WRN N-CNTRL TX INTO SWRN OK AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE
ERN BOUND OF THE CRITICAL AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. STRONG
SUSTAINED SWLY-WLY SURFACE WINDS OF 20-30 MPH...OWING TO A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG TROPOSPHERIC FLOW PROFILES...WILL OCCUR
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER UNDERGOES STRONG HEATING. MIN RH WILL
CORRESPOND TO THE TEMP FIELD WITH THE LOWEST VALUES /4-8 PERCENT/
OVER THE ERN AND SRN PORTIONS OF THE CRITICAL AREA...WITH UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR 20 PERCENT ELSEWHERE.
..SMITH.. 05/24/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...