Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Sun May 29 07:54:02 UTC 2011
Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 290753
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF
SRN...CNTRL...AND NERN NM...FAR WRN TX PANHANDLE...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NM...ERN PORTIONS OF AZ...FAR SERN
UT/SWRN CO...FAR S-CNTRL/SERN CO...SWRN KS...W TX AND THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE PAC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT. AS
THIS TAKES PLACE...STRONG MIDLEVEL SWLYS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SWRN
STATES AND CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...CYCLOGENESIS IS
FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE OVER ERN CO...WHICH WILL AID IN LIFTING A
WARM FRONT NWD ACROSS SWRN KS. A DRYLINE WILL EXTEND SWD OUT OF SWRN
KS INTO THE TX PANHANDLE/WRN TX DURING THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE
RETREATING WWD DURING THE NIGHT AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ENTERS THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA. FARTHER W...A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS UT/AZ DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN NM/CO DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
...NM...PORTIONS OF ERN AZ...FOUR CORNERS AREA...CNTRL/SRN HIGH
PLAINS...
POOR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY IS OBSERVED ACROSS NM AND W
TX...CHARACTERIZED BY RH VALUES FROM 10-25 PERCENT. THIS WILL FAVOR
VERY DRY FUELS GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND SUPPORT VERY LOW MIN
RH VALUES /AOB 10 PERCENT/ AS TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR 90 OVER
CNTRL NM...AND NEAR 100 OVER ERN NM AND W TX/PANHANDLE. AS MIDLEVEL
SWLYS STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON /AOA 30 KT AT 700 MB/ AND
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE OVER ERN CO...SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS SPEEDS FROM 30-40 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF SRN/CNTRL/NERN NM. THESE CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH DRY FUELS/ONGOING DROUGHT WILL SUPPORT AN EXTREMELY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. PORTIONS OF E-CNTRL NM...W TX...AND
THE WRN/CNTRL TX PANHANDLE MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO EXTREMELY
CRITICAL DURING THE NEXT D1 OUTLOOK.
FARTHER E OVER PORTIONS OF ERN AZ...SERN UT...SWRN CO...AND WRN
NM...VERY STRONG SURFACE WINDS /SUSTAINED AT AROUND 40 MPH/ WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP BY MID-DAY. HOWEVER...MIN RH VALUES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER /MID TEENS/ COMPARED TO CNTRL/ERN NM. THUS...THIS AREA HAS
NOT BEEN UPGRADED TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL. OVER SERN CO...SWRN
KS...THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...AND WRN TX...HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP /90S TO AROUND 100/ W OF THE DRYLINE AND S
OF A NWD LIFTING WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SINGLE DIGIT RH
VALUES. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL EASILY SUPPORT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AS SUSTAINED S-SWLY SURFACE WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 20-35
MPH.
..GARNER.. 05/29/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...