Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL FNUS21 KWNS 031627 DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1127 AM CDT SAT SEP 03 2011 VALID 031700Z - 041200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF E TX... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF ERN/CNTRL WA/ORE AND THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE... ...PORTIONS OF E TX... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO EXIST TO THE W OF TROPICAL STORM LEE OVER PORTIONS OF E TX...WHERE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL NLY FLOW WILL BECOME JUXTAPOSED WITH A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. 12Z MODEL RUNS ARE STILL INCONSISTENT DEPICTING THE AMOUNT OF MIDLEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT...BUT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SHOW STRONG HEATING/DRYING OCCURRING AT THE SFC AND PWAT VALUES /NEAR 1.3 INCHES AT CLL PER GPS-IPW DATA/ LOWER THAN WHAT IS DEPICTED BY THE NAM/NAMKF SOLUTIONS...AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION. THIS DRY MIDLEVEL AIR SHOULD MIX TOWARDS THE SFC AND SUPPORT RH VALUES FALLING TO NEAR 25 PERCENT. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED TO 15-20 MPH /PER MORNING SFC OBS/ AND SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. DESPITE WIND SPEEDS ONLY BEING MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...EXCEPTIONAL/HISTORIC DROUGHT OVER THE REGION WILL EXACERBATE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT AND WILL WARRANT A CATEGORICAL RISK UPGRADE. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STILL FORECAST TO OCCUR TO THE W OF THE CRITICAL RISK AREA ACROSS N-CNTRL AND S-CNTRL TX. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY BE WEAKER HERE /10-15 MPH SUSTAINED/ WHICH WILL PRECLUDE INCLUSION IN THE CRITICAL RISK AREA. ...PORTIONS OF ERN/CNTRL WA/ORE AND THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE... PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK. ..ROGERS.. 09/03/2011 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0227 AM CDT SAT SEP 03 2011/ ...SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE N-CNTRL CONUS TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. UPSTREAM FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...LARGE SCALE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE PAC NW. COMBINATION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS/NRN ROCKIES AND TROUGH OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE PAC COAST WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE LOW-LEVEL ELYS OVER WA/ORE. MEANWHILE ALONG THE GULF COAST...TROPICAL STORM LEE IS FORECAST TO MOVE N INTO SRN LA BY TONIGHT /REF LATEST NHC FORECAST FOR TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE/. ...PORTIONS OF ERN/CNTRL WA/ORE AND THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF CRITICAL RH VALUES /15-25 PERCENT/ WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF ERN/CNTRL ORE AND WA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 10 MPH...WHICH WILL PRECLUDE A MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR WIND DRIVEN WILDFIRES. FARTHER W INVOF THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE...CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED ELY WINDS SUSTAINED AT 15-20 MPH /WITH GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH/ ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR MIN RH VALUES FALLING TO NEAR 20 PERCENT. THOUGH FUEL CONDITIONS /PER NWCC GUIDANCE/ ARE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR LARGE FIRE GROWTH...THE MODERATELY STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH WARRANT AN UPGRADE TO CRITICAL. ...N-CNTRL INTO S-CNTRL TX... EXPANSIVE AREA OF E-NELY SURFACE WINDS SUSTAINED FROM 15-20 MPH ARE FORECAST TO RESIDE OVER N-CNTRL INTO S-CNTRL TX DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS FLOW REGIME IS EXPECTED TO BE JUXTAPOSED WITH MIN RH VALUES FROM 20-30 PERCENT AS WELL AS ONGOING EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT...WHICH WILL FAVOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL FNUS22 KWNS 031952 DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0252 PM CDT SAT SEP 03 2011 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CNTRL/SRN TX... ...CNTRL/SRN TX... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A LARGE AREA OF HIGH-END CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN TX...ON THE WRN FRINGE OF STRONGER N-NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW /0-1 KM MEAN LAYER FLOW OF 25-35 KTS/ SURROUNDING TROPICAL STORM LEE. ENHANCEMENT OF THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL OCCUR AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND A SWD MOVING COLD FRONT. THE STRONGEST WINDS STILL APPEAR LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER CNTRL/E-CNTRL TX...WHERE SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS MAY APPROACH 30-35 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. STRONG HEATING WITHIN A DRY AIR MASS SHOULD FAVOR RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE MID 20S ACROSS CNTRL TX...AND TO NEAR 20 PERCENT ACROSS S TX. DESPITE ONGOING EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT...ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS TO HOLD OFF ON INITIATION OF AN EXTREMELY CRITICAL RISK ATTM. OF PRIMARY CONCERN ARE FORECAST TRACK DIFFERENCES OF TROPICAL STORM LEE /12Z NAM SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE OUTLIER/...AS WELL AS UNCERTAINTY WHETHER RH VALUES WILL FALL LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT AT LEAST A HIGH-END CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL MATERIALIZE...AND MAY EVENTUALLY NEED A CATEGORICAL RISK UPGRADE IN FUTURE OUTLOOKS. ...SRN KS...MUCH OF OK...NWRN TX... MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS /INCLUDING 12Z WRF-NMM AND WRF-NSSL HIGH RESOLUTION RUNS/ SUGGESTS HIGHEST PRECIPITATION TOTALS ON SAT/D1 AND EARLY SUN/D2 ASSOCIATED WITH A SWD MOVING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED OVER THE TX PANHANDLE AND WRN OK...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVER CNTRL OK AND NWRN TX. DRIER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS...WITH TEMPERATURES BECOMING NOTABLY COOLER /70S-80S/. HOWEVER...A WIDE SPREAD EXISTS IN MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE DEGREE OF COOLING/DRYING THAT WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH MIN RH VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS-LOWER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. ALTHOUGH SUSTAINED SFC WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY BE SUPPORTIVE OF A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT /20-25 MPH/...ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND THE DEGREE OF COOLING/DRYING THAT MAY OCCUR TO PRECLUDE CRITICAL RISK UPGRADE ATTM. ..ROGERS.. 09/03/2011 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0231 AM CDT SAT SEP 03 2011/ ...SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE E FROM THE UPR MS VALLEY REGION ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. AS THIS TAKES PLACE...ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE S INTO TX...WHILE LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES SITUATED OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS. MEANWHILE...TROPICAL STORM LEE /REF LATEST NHC FORECAST FOR TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE/ WILL LIFT NWD ACROSS SRN LA. STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RESIDING BETWEEN LEE AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CRITICAL WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. ...CNTRL/SRN TX... LARGE AREA OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER CNTRL/SRN TX BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY. STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL FAVOR SUSTAINED NLY WIND SPEEDS UP TO 30 MPH OVER CNTRL TX...TO AROUND 20-25 MPH OVER SRN TX. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF MIN RH VALUES AOB 20 PERCENT OVER SRN TX...TO 20-30 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF CNTRL TX. GIVEN ONGOING EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT/VERY DRY FUELS...PORTIONS OF THE REGION MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL IN FUTURE OUTLOOKS. ...SRN KS...MUCH OF OK...NWRN TX... A DRY POST FRONTAL AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO SPREAD SWD ACROSS SRN KS...MUCH OF OK AND NWRN TX DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL LIKELY AID IN MIN RH VALUES FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. THIS DRYNESS WILL BE JUXTAPOSED WITH SUSTAINED N-NELY SURFACE WINDS FROM 20-25 MPH...FAVORING ELEVATED TO POSSIBLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY ATTM IS AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION/FUEL MOISTENING ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL PASSAGE. IF FUTURE OUTLOOKS DETERMINE RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE MINIMAL...THEN PART OF THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO CRITICAL. ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...