Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 031627
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CDT SAT SEP 03 2011
VALID 031700Z - 041200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF E TX...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF ERN/CNTRL WA/ORE AND
THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE...
...PORTIONS OF E TX...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO EXIST TO THE W OF
TROPICAL STORM LEE OVER PORTIONS OF E TX...WHERE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL
NLY FLOW WILL BECOME JUXTAPOSED WITH A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. 12Z MODEL
RUNS ARE STILL INCONSISTENT DEPICTING THE AMOUNT OF MIDLEVEL
MOISTURE PRESENT...BUT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SHOW STRONG
HEATING/DRYING OCCURRING AT THE SFC AND PWAT VALUES /NEAR 1.3 INCHES
AT CLL PER GPS-IPW DATA/ LOWER THAN WHAT IS DEPICTED BY THE
NAM/NAMKF SOLUTIONS...AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION.
THIS DRY MIDLEVEL AIR SHOULD MIX TOWARDS THE SFC AND SUPPORT RH
VALUES FALLING TO NEAR 25 PERCENT. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS HAVE
ALREADY INCREASED TO 15-20 MPH /PER MORNING SFC OBS/ AND SHOULD
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. DESPITE WIND SPEEDS ONLY BEING
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS...EXCEPTIONAL/HISTORIC DROUGHT OVER THE REGION WILL
EXACERBATE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT AND WILL WARRANT A CATEGORICAL
RISK UPGRADE.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STILL FORECAST TO OCCUR TO THE
W OF THE CRITICAL RISK AREA ACROSS N-CNTRL AND S-CNTRL TX.
HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY BE WEAKER HERE /10-15 MPH
SUSTAINED/ WHICH WILL PRECLUDE INCLUSION IN THE CRITICAL RISK AREA.
...PORTIONS OF ERN/CNTRL WA/ORE AND THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE...
PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK.
..ROGERS.. 09/03/2011
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0227 AM CDT SAT SEP 03 2011/
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE N-CNTRL CONUS TODAY. AS THIS
OCCURS...ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN SWD INTO THE
SRN PLAINS. UPSTREAM FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...LARGE SCALE RIDGE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE PAC NW. COMBINATION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS/NRN ROCKIES AND TROUGH OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE PAC COAST WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE
LOW-LEVEL ELYS OVER WA/ORE. MEANWHILE ALONG THE GULF
COAST...TROPICAL STORM LEE IS FORECAST TO MOVE N INTO SRN LA BY
TONIGHT /REF LATEST NHC FORECAST FOR TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE/.
...PORTIONS OF ERN/CNTRL WA/ORE AND THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF CRITICAL RH VALUES
/15-25 PERCENT/ WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF ERN/CNTRL ORE AND WA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO EXCEED 10 MPH...WHICH WILL PRECLUDE A MORE SIGNIFICANT
THREAT FOR WIND DRIVEN WILDFIRES.
FARTHER W INVOF THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE...CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED ELY
WINDS SUSTAINED AT 15-20 MPH /WITH GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH/ ARE FORECAST
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR MIN RH VALUES FALLING TO NEAR 20 PERCENT. THOUGH FUEL
CONDITIONS /PER NWCC GUIDANCE/ ARE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR LARGE FIRE
GROWTH...THE MODERATELY STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH WARRANT AN UPGRADE
TO CRITICAL.
...N-CNTRL INTO S-CNTRL TX...
EXPANSIVE AREA OF E-NELY SURFACE WINDS SUSTAINED FROM 15-20 MPH ARE
FORECAST TO RESIDE OVER N-CNTRL INTO S-CNTRL TX DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS FLOW REGIME IS EXPECTED TO BE JUXTAPOSED WITH MIN RH
VALUES FROM 20-30 PERCENT AS WELL AS ONGOING EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL
DROUGHT...WHICH WILL FAVOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 031952
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0252 PM CDT SAT SEP 03 2011
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CNTRL/SRN TX...
...CNTRL/SRN TX...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A LARGE AREA OF HIGH-END
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF
CNTRL/SRN TX...ON THE WRN FRINGE OF STRONGER N-NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
/0-1 KM MEAN LAYER FLOW OF 25-35 KTS/ SURROUNDING TROPICAL STORM
LEE. ENHANCEMENT OF THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL OCCUR AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND A SWD MOVING COLD FRONT. THE STRONGEST WINDS
STILL APPEAR LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER CNTRL/E-CNTRL TX...WHERE SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS MAY APPROACH 30-35 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 40
MPH. STRONG HEATING WITHIN A DRY AIR MASS SHOULD FAVOR RH VALUES
FALLING INTO THE MID 20S ACROSS CNTRL TX...AND TO NEAR 20 PERCENT
ACROSS S TX. DESPITE ONGOING EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT...ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS TO HOLD OFF ON INITIATION OF AN EXTREMELY
CRITICAL RISK ATTM. OF PRIMARY CONCERN ARE FORECAST TRACK
DIFFERENCES OF TROPICAL STORM LEE /12Z NAM SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE
OUTLIER/...AS WELL AS UNCERTAINTY WHETHER RH VALUES WILL FALL LOW
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT AT LEAST A HIGH-END CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THREAT WILL MATERIALIZE...AND MAY EVENTUALLY NEED A
CATEGORICAL RISK UPGRADE IN FUTURE OUTLOOKS.
...SRN KS...MUCH OF OK...NWRN TX...
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS /INCLUDING 12Z WRF-NMM AND WRF-NSSL HIGH
RESOLUTION RUNS/ SUGGESTS HIGHEST PRECIPITATION TOTALS ON SAT/D1 AND
EARLY SUN/D2 ASSOCIATED WITH A SWD MOVING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE
FOCUSED OVER THE TX PANHANDLE AND WRN OK...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
EXPECTED OVER CNTRL OK AND NWRN TX. DRIER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE
POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS...WITH TEMPERATURES BECOMING NOTABLY COOLER
/70S-80S/. HOWEVER...A WIDE SPREAD EXISTS IN MODEL SOLUTIONS
REGARDING THE DEGREE OF COOLING/DRYING THAT WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH MIN RH VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPPER
TEENS-LOWER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. ALTHOUGH SUSTAINED SFC WIND SPEEDS
WILL LIKELY BE SUPPORTIVE OF A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT /20-25
MPH/...ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
AND THE DEGREE OF COOLING/DRYING THAT MAY OCCUR TO PRECLUDE CRITICAL
RISK UPGRADE ATTM.
..ROGERS.. 09/03/2011
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0231 AM CDT SAT SEP 03 2011/
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE E FROM THE UPR MS VALLEY
REGION ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. AS THIS TAKES
PLACE...ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE S INTO TX...WHILE
LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES SITUATED OVER MUCH OF
THE GREAT PLAINS. MEANWHILE...TROPICAL STORM LEE /REF LATEST NHC
FORECAST FOR TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE/ WILL LIFT NWD ACROSS SRN
LA. STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RESIDING BETWEEN LEE AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CRITICAL WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.
...CNTRL/SRN TX...
LARGE AREA OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER CNTRL/SRN TX BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY.
STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL FAVOR SUSTAINED NLY WIND
SPEEDS UP TO 30 MPH OVER CNTRL TX...TO AROUND 20-25 MPH OVER SRN TX.
IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF MIN RH VALUES AOB 20 PERCENT OVER SRN TX...TO 20-30 PERCENT OVER
MUCH OF CNTRL TX. GIVEN ONGOING EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT/VERY DRY
FUELS...PORTIONS OF THE REGION MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO EXTREMELY
CRITICAL IN FUTURE OUTLOOKS.
...SRN KS...MUCH OF OK...NWRN TX...
A DRY POST FRONTAL AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO SPREAD SWD ACROSS SRN
KS...MUCH OF OK AND NWRN TX DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL
LIKELY AID IN MIN RH VALUES FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. THIS
DRYNESS WILL BE JUXTAPOSED WITH SUSTAINED N-NELY SURFACE WINDS FROM
20-25 MPH...FAVORING ELEVATED TO POSSIBLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY ATTM IS AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION/FUEL
MOISTENING ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL PASSAGE. IF FUTURE OUTLOOKS
DETERMINE RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE MINIMAL...THEN PART OF THIS AREA
MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO CRITICAL.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...