Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Mon Feb 25 16:06:03 UTC 2013
Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 251604
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1004 AM CST MON FEB 25 2013
VALID 251700Z - 261200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY
OF DEEP S TX...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR S TX...
...S TX...
A SFC COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE FROM THE TX GULF COAST...WITH
STRONG N-NWLY WINDS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. 16Z SFC OBS OVER CNTRL
AND S TX REFLECT A VERY DRY AIR MASS ADVECTING SWD...WITH RH BELOW
20 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE
ALREADY BEING OBSERVED AS FAR N AS THE SRN TX HILL COUNTRY...AND THE
ONGOING CRITICAL RISK AREA HAS BEEN EXPANDED ACCORDINGLY. RH VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO PLUMMET BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE TX GULF COAST
AS DRY AIR CONTINUES SPREADING S/EWD.
EXTREMELY CRITICAL CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR ON TRACK TO MATERIALIZE
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF DEEP S TX. 12Z
NAM/GFS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A CORRIDOR OF SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS OF 30-35 MPH CO-LOCATED WITH SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES...WITH
WIND GUST POTENTIAL TO NEAR 50 MPH. ADDITIONALLY...VERY DRY FUEL
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THIS REGION...SUPPORTING AN
EXTREME RISK FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD.
..ROGERS.. 02/25/2013
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0217 AM CST MON FEB 25 2013/
...SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TODAY.
AS THIS OCCURS...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE EWD INTO
THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO BY MIDDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...INTENSE WNWLY
WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF TX...CHARACTERIZED BY 850 MB SPEEDS
FROM 40-50 KT INCREASING TO 90 KT AT 500 MB. THIS WILL PROMOTE
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN TX.
...S TX...
SURFACE WINDS WILL RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE NW AS A COLD FRONT
PASSES E ACROSS SRN TX. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SUSTAINED
SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 25-35 MPH...WHILE STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND STRONG 850 MB WINDS AID IN GUSTS AOA 40 MPH. RH VALUES IN
THE TEENS TO LOW 20S ARE PROBABLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH
SINGLE DIGIT VALUES POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT A HIGH END CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
OVER DEEP S TX BORDERING THE RIO GRANDE...SUSTAINED SPEEDS MAY
APPROACH 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. THESE WINDS...COMBINED WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 70F...VERY LOW RH VALUES...AND PARTICULARLY DRY
FUELS WILL SUPPORT AN EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...