Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Tue Mar 22 09:47:02 UTC 2016 ( | )

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 220942

   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0442 AM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016

   VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
   NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHWEST OK...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR AREAS SURROUNDING THE EXTREMELY
   CRITICAL FROM FAR SOUTHEAST AZ TO EASTERN KS...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
   ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AS A CLOSED
   LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND A STRONG JET MAXIMUM
   MATERIALIZES FROM SOUTHERN NM TO CENTRAL KS. THROUGH THE END OF THE
   PERIOD...THE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT MID-LEVEL JET CORE WILL ADVANCE
   NORTHEASTWARD TO THE MID MS VALLEY. THE SFC RESPONSE WILL FEATURE
   LOW PRESSURE OVER KS TRANSITING EASTWARD TOWARDS IL...WHILE A
   TRAILING COLD FRONT RAPIDLY PROGRESSES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
   PLAINS. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
   BASIN.

   ...ANOTHER DAY OF SIGNIFICANT FIRE-WX CONCERNS IS EXPECTED ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY...

   WITH A CORE OF STRONG MID-LEVEL W/SW FLOW OVER THE REGION...AND A
   DEEP SFC CYCLONE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
   SHOULD OVERSPREAD AREAS FROM SOUTHERN/EASTERN AZ NORTHEASTWARD INTO
   KS. AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
   PLAINS...W/SW WINDS AROUND 30-40 MPH SUSTAINED /WITH HIGHER GUSTS/
   ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP. ADDITIONALLY...POOR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY
   WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR ELEVATED/CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP FAIRLY
   QUICKLY IN THE MORNING FROM EASTERN NM INTO WRN OK. IN FACT...
   LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
   PERIOD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF TX. AS SUCH...RH VALUES AHEAD OF
   THE FRONT SHOULD FALL RAPIDLY...DROPPING BENEATH 10-12 PERCENT IN
   MANY SPOTS FROM THE GUADALUPE MTNS NORTHEAST TO WESTERN OK. FUELS
   WILL BE FURTHER CONDITIONED FROM PREVIOUS DAYS SUCH THAT VERY RAPID
   FIRE SPREAD WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ON D2/WEDNESDAY.
   THEREFORE...UPON COLLABORATION WITH IMPACTED OFFICES...AN EXTREMELY
   CRITICAL AREA IS INTRODUCED FOR THIS CORRIDOR OF CONSIDERABLY HIGH
   FIRE-WX CONCERNS. 

   WHILE TIMING OF THE FRONT LENDS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE ZONE OF
   GREATEST FIRE-WX THREAT...THE HIGHLIGHTED EXTREME AREA IS WHERE
   CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPS/VERY LOW RH VALUES
   OVERLAPPING STRONG WINDS. NONETHELESS...SOME ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE
   NEEDED IN FUTURE UPDATES. ADDITIONALLY...AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT FROM
   WEST TO NORTH WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
   THE DAY WILL COMPLICATE ANY FIREFIGHTING EFFORTS.

   SURROUNDING THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA...CONSIDERABLE FIRE-WX
   CONCERNS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20-40
   MPH AND RH VALUES BELOW 20-25 PERCENT. ONCE AGAIN...TIMING OF THE
   FRONT ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE/NRN TX PANHANDLE AND CNTRL KS...AS
   WELL AS POSITIONING OF THE SFC CYCLONE...OFFERS CONSIDERABLE
   UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE NORTHWEST BOUNDS OF HEIGHTENED FIRE-WX
   CONCERNS. STILL...STRONG WINDS AND A NARROW CORRIDOR OF LOW RH
   VALUES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE FIRE-WX
   CONDITIONS...DESPITE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. 

   ...PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND VICINITY...
   POTENTIALLY ELEVATED FIRE-WX CONCERNS WILL EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF
   NC...VA...AND WV...AS DRY AIR IS MAINTAINED OVER THE REGION...AND
   BREEZY SLY WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. IF CONFIDENCE IN SUSTAINED
   WINDS CLOSER TO 15-20 MPH INCREASES...AN ELEVATED AREA MAY BE
   INTRODUCED IN LATER FORECASTS.

   ...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA...
   WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...AN
   OFFSHORE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION AT
   THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. GUSTY N/NE WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN
   FAVORED CANYONS AND PASSES...WILL COMBINE WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
   INTO THE TEENS. AT LEAST LOCALLY ELEVATED CONDITIONS APPEAR
   PROBABLE...AND AN AREAL INTRODUCTION MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER
   FORECASTS...PRIMARILY FOR PARTS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES.

   ..PICCA.. 03/22/2016

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      

Fire Weather/Forecast Products/Home