Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Wed Apr 18 07:23:02 UTC 2018 ( | )

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 180722

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0222 AM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

   Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA
   INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF ARIZONA...THE WESTERN HALF
   OF NEW MEXICO...AND NORTHWARD ALONG THE UTAH/COLORADO BORDER AREA...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO FRONT
   RANGE AND PLAINS...

   ...Synopsis...
   The greatest fire weather concerns on D2/Wednesday will likely be
   tied to an approaching mid-level trough centered over central
   California at the beginning of the forecast period.  This trough
   will migrate eastward during the day while resulting in a dramatic
   increase of mid-level flow in dry areas of the Southwest.  At the
   surface, a low will strengthen while reaching southern Utah around
   00Z.  The strengthening surface pressure gradient around this low
   will result in increasingly strong southerly flow from the Southwest
   eastward to the southern and central High Plains.  Additionally,
   locally elevated fire weather may also develop in the Carolinas
   again as breezy and dry conditions develop in that area.

   ...Southwest into the southern and central High Plains...
   A broad area of enhanced surface flow will develop due to 1) a
   tightening surface pressure gradient surrounding the southern Utah
   low, 2) increasing mid-level flow, and 3) vertical mixing processes.
   This flow will be strongest in areas of eastern Arizona and western
   New Mexico, where 30-40 mph sustained winds are possible along with
   higher gusts.  Additionally, very low RH values will develop across
   the region - perhaps as low as 5-7% across Arizona and western New
   Mexico and around 10-15% along the Utah/Colorado border and also in
   areas of the Colorado Front Range.  Given the aforementioned fire
   weather scenario, broad areas of elevated to critical fire weather
   are expected and attendant delineations have been made to address
   this threat.  Additionally, a few areas from east-central Arizona
   into western New Mexico will exceed extremely critical thresholds
   for several hours during the evening (single digit RH values, dry
   fuels supporting ongoing fire activity, and 30+ mph surface winds). 

   Farther southeast, RH values are a bit in question as modest
   low-level moist advection should be ongoing across the Texas South
   Plains/Panhandle and points east.  Surface winds will exceed 20 mph
   however, and if models trend drier in the boundary layer over time
   across this region, an upgrade to critical may be needed.

   ..Cook.. 04/18/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      

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