SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1783 FOR NRN VA...MOST OF MD AND DEL
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

VALID 101824Z - 102100Z

SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY OVER THE
AREA AND SPREAD EWD. ISOLATED DAMAGING MICROBURSTS SHOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. IF STORMS BEGIN
TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZING INTO A LINE...A WW MIGHT BE REQUIRED. 

STRONG SURFACE HEATING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND RICH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES FROM 2500 TO 3000 J/KG
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS AS CAP WEAKENS AND ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. FOCUS FOR
WHERE A GREATER CONCENTRATION OF STORMS MAY OCCUR IS RATHER SUBTLE.
HOWEVER...MORE NUMEROUS STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WV AND THESE MAY ORGANIZE A COLD POOL AS THEY SPREAD
EWD. DEEP LAYER FLOW IS WLY AND QUITE WEAK. HOWEVER...IF STORMS
MOVING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WV CAN ORGANIZE A COLD POOL...FLOW
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO HELP STORMS PROPAGATE EAST AS A LINE. OTHER
STORMS MAY FOCUS ALONG BOUNDARY EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM NRN MD WSW THROUGH NRN VA.

..DIAL.. 08/10/01