SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2360 FOR ERN IA/NW IL/CNTRL AND SRN WI
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

VALID 051904Z - 052100Z

CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

INTENSIFYING MID-LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO NOSE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...WITH NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION SLOWLY
INCREASING ALONG COLD FRONT ACROSS IOWA...ROUGHLY NEAR/JUST WEST OF
INTERSTATE 35.  GIVEN FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...NARROW
TONGUE OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY JUST AHEAD OF FRONT APPEARS
SUPPORTIVE OF FURTHER INTENSIFICATION NEXT FEW HOURS.  EMBEDDED
WITHIN STRONG AND STRENGTHENING MEAN FLOW ENVIRONMENT /IN EXCESS OF
50 KT/...JUST AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT...THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE WITH CONVECTIVE LINE ACROSS EASTERN IOWA
THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST ILLINOIS/
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN BY/SHORTLY AFTER 22Z.

..KERR.. 12/05/01