SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0545 FOR KY/TN
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...
   
   VALID 281558Z - 281800Z
   
   BASED ON CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS...NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE
   ISSUED SHORTLY.
   
   BASED ON 12Z RAOB FROM NASHVILLE...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE
   BEING REACHED IN MOIST PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL
   KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE. DAYTIME HEATING HAS WARMED TEMPERATURES
   INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S...AND SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS
   ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP.  STRONGEST FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
   MOTION IS SHIFTING NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...BUT MID/UPPER TROUGH
   AXIS TAILS FROM GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH AREAS WEST OF CINCINNATI
   OH INTO THE VICINITY OF MEMPHIS TN.  WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MAY
   ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH
   SURFACE-BASED CAPE TO 2000 J/KG.  ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE
   IN WARM SECTOR...WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY ALSO LIKELY TO DEVELOP
   ALONG COLD FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM JUST WEST OF
   LOUISVILLE KY INTO THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.  LARGE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS
   ARE LIKELY...WITH TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE.  DAMAGING WIND THREAT
   SHOULD INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS SQUALL LINE SLOWLY EVOLVES ALONG
   COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KENTUCKY AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE. 
   
   ..KERR.. 04/28/02