SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1225 FOR
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...
   
   VALID 242201Z - 250200Z
   
   WEAKLY ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND
   MARGINAL HAIL OVER PORTIONS OF SERN PA...SRN NJ...AND PERHAPS NRN
   MD AND DEL THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY WITHIN
   A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. NO WW ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
   
   STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE DRIFTING SSEWD ACROSS
   ERN PA AND SOUTH-CNTRL NJ. THIS ACTIVITY INITIATED ALONG WEAK
   BACKDOOR FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AND NEW UPDRAFTS ARE BEING GENERATED
   AS OUTFLOW DRIFTS INTO INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS SRN PA/NJ.
   UNIDIRECTIONAL NWLY FLOW AND WEAK SHEAR WAS LIMITING STORM
   ORGANIZATION AND RESULTING IN A GENERAL SWD DRIFT TO THE
   CONVECTION. MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND WBZ LEVELS AROUND 10 KFT
   COULD RESULT IN MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD WIND
   GUST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. GIVEN WEAK FORCING AND DIURNAL
   NATURE OF THIS ACTIVITY...EXPECT STORMS TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER
   SUNSET.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 06/24/02