SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1431 FOR SERN AZ...
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...
   
   VALID 221959Z - 222200Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ESEWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
   W CENTRAL AND SWRN NM / SERN AZ...WITH A THREAT FOR LOCALLY
   DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL.  WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
   HOURS.
   
   THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE / PROPAGATE WWD ACROSS W CENTRAL NM
   / E CENTRAL AND SERN AZ AHEAD OF SUBTLE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
   INDICATED BY WV IMAGERY OVER W CENTRAL NM.  ALTHOUGH HEATING HAS
   BEEN SOMEWHAT LIMITED OVER SERN AZ DUE TO EARLIER CLOUD COVER...
   CLOUD DISSIPATION OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAS ALLOWED SOME
   HEATING TO COMMENCE IN MOIST / 60S DEWPOINTS/ AIRMASS IN SERN AZ. 
   WITH 1000 TO 2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE NOW INDICATED ACROSS THIS
   REGION...STORMS ARE FORECAST TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
   HOURS.  
   
   WITH ENELY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...STORMS ARE FORECAST
   TO CONTINUE MOVING WLY / WSWLY.  STORMS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
   HIGH-BASED AS THEY MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EVENTUALLY
   ENCOUNTER DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS FROM JUST W OF TUS NWD / NWWD
   TOWARD PHX -- WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
   AND SOME HAIL.  
   
   ..GOSS.. 07/22/02