MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1121
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0619 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WEST CENTRAL TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 252319Z - 260045Z
   
   ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF
   WEST CENTRAL TX THIS EVENING.  PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT WW WILL
   NOT BE REQUIRED.
   
   LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE AREA OF TCU
   AND CBS DEVELOPING ALONG AN AXIS FROM FST - JCT.  THIS IS ALONG OLD
   FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SEPARATING MOIST/VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO THE
   SOUTH FROM SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS TO THE NORTH.  WEAK CAPPING
   INVERSION AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEAR TO BE AIDING IN
   CONVECTIVE INITIATION.	SBCAPE VALUES IN THIS AREA RANGE FROM
   2000-3000 J/KG...SUGGESTING THAT ISOLATED STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF
   SEVERE ACTIVITY AND HEAVY RAINFALL.  HOWEVER...UPPER RIDGE AXIS LIES
   ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL
   VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES.	PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED
   MULTICELL STORMS WILL OCCUR IN THIS REGION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
   HOURS...SAGGING SOUTHWARD TOWARD DRT BY LATE EVENING.	 LARGE HAIL
   AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CELLS. 
   HOWEVER...LIMITED ORGANIZATION OF ACTIVITY SUGGESTS THAT WW WILL NOT
   BE REQUIRED.
   
   ..HART.. 05/25/2003
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...
   
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