MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2295
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0819 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN VA...SRN MD/DE AND FAR SRN NJ
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 902...905...
   
   VALID 280119Z - 280215Z
   
   THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH WW EXPIRATION TIME
   FOR BOTH WW 902 AND 905...28/02Z...28/03Z RESPECTIVELY. THE GREATEST
   THREAT WILL BE OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA/FAR SRN NJ AWAY FROM THE
   IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. 
   
   00Z SOUNDINGS FROM WALLOPS ISLAND AND BLACKSBURG INDICATED MODERATE
   TO HIGH INSTABILITY WITH AROUND 3500 J/KG OF MUCAPE EXTENDING ALONG
   AN AXIS FROM SCENTRAL VA NEWD INTO THE DELMARVA PENINSULA.
   INHIBITION RELATED TO SEABREEZE EFFECTS SEEN ON THE 00Z WALLOPS
   ISLAND SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY
   ELEVATED POSING LESS OF A SEVERE WIND THREAT NEAR THE IMMEDIATE
   COAST. HOWEVER...STRONG PRESSURE RISES /AROUND 4 MB/HR/ NOTED BEHIND
   THE CONVECTIVE LINE OVER THE DC AREA AT 00Z...SUGGESTS THAT WIND
   DAMAGE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION OVER THE
   DELMARVA PENINSULA NWD INTO FAR SRN NJ. AN ISOLATED SEVERE
   WIND/LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SRN/CENTRAL VA SOUTH OF
   WW 902/905 WHERE AIRMASS WITH REMAIN VERY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF
   CONVECTIVE LINE PRIOR TO INCREASING INHIBITION.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 08/28/2003
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...
   
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