MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0313
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0557 AM CDT SAT APR 10 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK INTO SWRN AR AND FAR NERN TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 101057Z - 101230Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH STRONGEST STORMS
   THROUGH 13 OR 14Z. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   TSTMS HAVE SLOWLY INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST
   COUPLE OF HOURS FROM SWRN/CNTRL OK EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE SERN PART OF
   THE STATE INTO FAR NERN TX AND WRN AR. THE STORMS FROM AROUND PRX
   NEWD INTO W-CNTRL AR APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT
   REGIME ALONG 30-35KT SWLY LLJ. TO THE W...FORCING FOR ASCENT ON
   ERN/SERN PERIPHERY OF VORTICITY MAX TRANSLATING ACROSS N-CNTRL OK
   APPEARS TO SUSTAINING STORMS OVER THE CNTRL PART OF THE STATE.
   
   LATEST RUC DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS SUGGEST THAT AIRMASS IMMEDIATELY ABOVE
   FRONTAL INVERSION IS ONLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE THIS MORNING WITH MUCAPES
   OF 300-800 J/KG. HOWEVER...TIME/HEIGHT TRENDS FROM THE PURCELL OK
   PROFILER SUGGEST THE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR THROUGH THE BUOYANCY LAYER HAS
   INCREASED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...LIKELY IN
   RESPONSE TO N-CNTRL OK VORTICITY MAX. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING OF
   ONGOING TSTMS WILL POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY S OF
   I-40 AND E OF I-35 WHERE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
   FOCUSED ALONG LLJ AXIS. GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING SHEAR PROFILES...A
   FEW STORMS MAY EXHIBIT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH THE POTENTIAL TO
   PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
   SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED.
   
   ..MEAD.. 04/10/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
   
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   33529431 33709698