MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0572
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0213 AM CDT FRI MAY 07 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OH / NWRN PA / SWRN NY...
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 152...
   
   VALID 070713Z - 070815Z
   
   THREAT FOR HAIL CONTINUES WITH A OF THE STRONGER STORMS IN AND CLOSE
   TO WW AREA.
   
   THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS SRN LOWER
   MI...AND ACROSS LK ERIE ATTM GENERALLY N OF COLD FRONT.  MARGINAL
   INSTABILITY PERSISTS ACROSS THIS REGION...AND WARM ADVECTION
   APPARENTLY REMAINS SUFFICIENT -- DESPITE MODEL FORECASTS -- TO ALLOW
   CONTINUED STORM REGENERATION. 
   
   NONETHELESS...GIVEN GENERALLY ELEVATED CONVECTION AND RELATIVELY
   WEAK INSTABILITY...EXPECT ONLY OCCASIONAL MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL
   WITH THE STRONGER STORMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  UNLESS
   CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY -- OR DEVELOP / MOVE INTO WARM
   SECTOR WHERE WIND THREAT WOULD BE GREATER -- WW WILL LIKELY BE
   ALLOWED TO EXPIRE WITHOUT A REPLACEMENT WATCH.
   
   ..GOSS.. 05/07/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...
   
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