MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1891
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0135 PM CDT THU AUG 05 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...W-CENTRAL/SWRN MT
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 051835Z - 052100Z
   
   TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE IN MT
   WITH SEVERE THREAT SPREADING ENEWD ACROSS W-CENTRAL MT. A SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED DURING NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
   
   AT 18Z...WV IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD INTO SRN ID.
   FEATURE IS EMBEDDED IN MODERATELY STRONG SWLY MID-UPPER LEVEL
   FLOW...WITH 18Z BOI SOUNDING SHOWING 35KT WINDS AT 500MB AND 70KT
   WINDS NEAR THE TROPOPAUSE.
   
   MEANWHILE...INSOLATIONAL HEATING CONTINUES ACROSS THE SWRN MTNS OF
   MT WHERE MARGINAL INSTABILITY PRESENTLY EXISTS WITH MLCAPE OF
   500-1000 J/KG. DEWPOINTS AROUND 50F SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
   ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SWRN
   QUARTER OF MT. LIFT ACROSS THIS REGION WILL BE ENHANCED LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION IMPINGES
   ON THE REGION FROM THE SW...WHICH WILL LIKELY INCREASE STORM
   COVERAGE.
   
   SUFFICIENT SHEAR EXISTS FOR ORGANIZED T-STORMS...WHICH SHOULD
   DEVELOP OFF THE ERN SLOPES OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY LATE
   AFTERNOON WITH THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WW LIKELY
   NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 08/05/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...MSO...
   
   48621231 47481121 46070965 45200931 45001002 45011091
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