MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1954
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0107 AM CDT WED AUG 11 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK AND NRN/CNTRL AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 110607Z - 110800Z
   
   SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL WAS INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN OK AND
   NRN/CNTRL AR EARLY TODAY. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY.
   
   COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SPREAD SWD INTO AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
   ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG ASCENT ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE
   AIDED BY PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW WITHIN RIGHT
   ENTRANCE REGION OF SPEED MAX MOVING ACROSS THE MO/MID MS RIVER
   VALLEYS. IN ADDITION TO MESOSCALE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING
   MECHANISMS AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
   ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT...AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH
   TIME... WILL LEAD TO FURTHER STORM ORGANIZATION WITH A FEW
   SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL AND A FEW STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED
   AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 08/11/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...
   
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