MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2341
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0308 PM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MS/AL
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 865...866...
   
   VALID 192008Z - 192115Z
   
   A NEW TORNADO WATCH REPLACING WW 865 WILL BE ISSUED PRIOR TO 21Z TO
   ACCOMMODATE ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS ARE IN PROGRESS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NRN MS
   SEWD INTO W-CNTRL AL WITHIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
   CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. HEIGHT FALLS AND
   INCREASED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET
   STREAKS OVERSPREADING THE REGION APPEAR TO BE INFLUENCING ONGOING
   CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY GIVEN THE MARKED INCREASE IN STORMS EXHIBITING
   MID-LEVEL ROTATION OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR.
   
   FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DISTRIBUTION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE
   SHEAR ACROSS MS/AL SUGGESTS THAT SUPERCELL AND ISOLATED TORNADO
   THREAT WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING. THUS...A NEW WW WILL BE
   ISSUED SHORTLY TO REPLACE WW 865...TO THE N OF TORNADO WATCH 866
   VALID UNTIL 20/00Z.
   
   ..MEAD.. 10/19/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...
   
   34539078 33718516 30598504 31219103