MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0070
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0452 PM CST WED JAN 12 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX / SERN OK / SWRN AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 122252Z - 130015Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE INCREASING ACROSS NERN TX AND
   INTO SERN OK / SWRN AR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NEW WW WILL LIKELY
   BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO S OF WW 002 AND 003.
   
   MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE /500 TO 750 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/ BUT CAPPED
   AIRMASS IS INDICATED ACROSS MUCH OF N TX AND INTO PARTS OF SERN OK /
   SWRN AR THIS AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE VERTICAL MOTION AHEAD
   OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRIVE LOW-LEVEL COOLING /
   WEAKENING OF THE CAP.  CONVECTION HAS SHOWN A MARKED INCREASE ACROSS
   CENTRAL N TX OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO JUST S OF WW 002...WHILE MORE
   ORGANIZED LINE CONTINUES MOVING EWD ACROSS SERN OK / N TX WITHIN
   THIS WW.
   
   WITH TIME...EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD OUT OF WW 002
   ACROSS SERN OK AND NERN TX...WITH A CONTINUED INCREASE IN CONVECTION
   S OF WW ALSO ANTICIPATED.  THOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT
   LIMITED...AREA PROFILERS / VWPS CONTINUE TO REVEAL VERY FAVORABLE
   DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD FOR SEVERE / SUPERCELL STORMS.  WHILE STRENGTH
   OF WINDS ALOFT SUPPORT A THREAT FOR STRONG / DAMAGING WINDS...DEGREE
   OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /SFC TO 1 KM SHEAR CURRENTLY NEAR 30 KT/ SUGGESTS
   THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-LEVEL ROTATION / A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AS
   WELL.
   
   ..GOSS.. 01/12/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...
   
   35399507 35439220 32289426 30669597 30799839 33339648