MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0123
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1123 PM CST THU JAN 27 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...DEEP SOUTH TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 280523Z - 280700Z
   
   ISOLATED HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS ACROSS DEEP
   SOUTH TX THROUGH 09Z.  A WIND THREAT IS EXPECTED MAINLY ALONG AND
   SOUTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDED FROM 45 S LRD TO 60 S
   CRP.
   
   COOLING CLOUD TOPS ON IR IMAGERY AND AN INCREASE IN LIGHTNING
   STRIKES SINCE 04Z FROM DEEP SOUTH TX /WEBB COUNTY/ SWD INTO MEXICO
   NEAR 60 S LRD...AND NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NNE OF CRP SUGGEST
   LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS INCREASING OVER THIS REGION.  THIS ASCENT
   ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
   EWD ACROSS DEEP S TX TO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH 09Z.  COOLING
   MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WITH THIS TROUGH WILL AID IN DESTABILIZATION
   ATOP A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.  SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID
   50S NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO LOW-MID 60S SWD TOWARD BRO. 
   ELEVATED CAPE IS EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 500 J/KG. 50-55 KT WSWLY MID
   LEVEL FLOW RESULTING IN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT STORM
   ORGANIZATION...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE SEVERE
   THREAT COVERAGE.  HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN FAVORABLE
   WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS OF 9-10 KFT.
   
   ..PETERS.. 01/28/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...
   
   27289914 27939903 27979854 27989699 26909739 25949712
   25789727 26049828 26499929 26959938