SEL5
   
   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 795
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   120 PM EDT SUN AUG 29 2004
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          WESTERN AND CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS
          NEW HAMPSHIRE
          NEW YORK
          EXTREME NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA
          VERMONT
          LAKE ERIE
          LAKE ONTARIO
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 120 PM UNTIL 700
   PM EDT.
   
   HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
   MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
   
   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 170 STATUTE MILES
   EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF SARANAC
   LAKE NEW YORK TO 25 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF BINGHAMTON NEW YORK.
   
   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
   PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
   WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
   WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
   TORNADOES.
   
   DISCUSSION...ABUNDANT UNCAPPED INSTABILITY AND NUMEROUS LOW LEVEL
   FORCING MECHANISMS INCLUDING WARM FRONT ACROSS NH...STATIONARY AND
   LAKE BREEZE FRONTS ACROSS WRN AND NRN NY...AS WELL AS
   TERRAIN...SHOULD PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD DEEP
   CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. SOMEWHAT MARGINAL
   DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH WILL BE
   OFFSET BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY STRONG INSTABILITY IN THESE AREAS.
   WHILE PULSE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
   OVER SRN PARTS OF THE WATCH...FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF
   SHEAR...INSTABILITY... AND FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN GREATER STORM
   ORGANIZATION OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND LEAD TO A HAIL/WIND AND
   ISOLD TORNADO THREAT THESE AREAS.
   
   AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
   TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
   KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
   MOTION VECTOR 26030.
   
   
   ...CARBIN/HART