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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook Issued on May 8, 2009
Updated: Fri May 8 08:55:07 UTC 2009
Note:
A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period
indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe
thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
| D4 | Mon, May 11, 2009 - Tue, May 12, 2009 |
D7 | Thu, May 14, 2009 - Fri, May 15, 2009 |
| D5 | Tue, May 12, 2009 - Wed, May 13, 2009 |
D8 | Fri, May 15, 2009 - Sat, May 16, 2009 |
| D6 | Wed, May 13, 2009 - Thu, May 14, 2009 |
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) |
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 080854
SPC AC 080854
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 AM CDT FRI MAY 08 2009
VALID 111200Z - 161200Z
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS MOVE A PROGRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EWD
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY ON MONDAY/DAY 4 AND TUESDAY/DAY 5
WITH A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY/DAY 6. INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR APPEARS SUFFICIENT
FOR SEVERE STORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IN THE SRN PLAINS AND
OZARKS AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL JET EJECTS EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
THAN THE GFS. THIS INTRODUCES UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE TIMING OF
THE SYSTEM. FOR THIS REASON...WILL NOT OUTLOOK AN AREA IN THE CNTRL
U.S. ATTM.
..BROYLES.. 05/08/2009
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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