NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center

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A Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms is Forecast Today and/or Tonight

Organized severe storms are expected across west-central Texas, with a more isolated severe threat expanding eastward along the central Gulf Coast. Large hail will be the main hazard with today's activity.

For additional details, see the latest Day 1 Convective Outlook.

Critical fire weather conditions are forecast today. See details...

SPC Products Overview

Hazard	Thu (04/15)	Fri (04/16)	Sat (04/17)	Sun (04/18)	Mon (04/19)	Tue (04/20)	Wed (04/21)	Thu (04/22)
Severe	Slight	Marginal	Marginal	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area
Fire	Critical	Elevated	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area

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Fire

Severe Weather Climatology (1982-2011)

Any Severe Probabilities: 15 Apr

Tornado Probabilities: 15 Apr

Damaging Wind Probabilities: 15 Apr

Severe Hail Probabilities: 15 Apr

Significant Tornado Probabilities: 15 Apr

Significant Wind Probabilities: 15 Apr

Significant Hail Probabilities: 15 Apr

More severe weather climatology data here.

2021 Tornado Watch Summary

Page last modified: April 14 2021 12:19 UTC

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2021 Severe Tstm Watch Summary

Page last modified: April 14 2021 12:19 UTC

Wildfire Climatology (1992-2015)

100 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 15 Apr

300 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 15 Apr

1000 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 15 Apr

5000 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 15 Apr

More wildfire climatology data here.

Latest SPC Publications

Wendt, N.A., and I.L. Jirak, 2021: An Hourly Climatology of Operational MRMS MESH-Diagnosed Severe and Significant Hail with Comparisons to Storm Data Hail Reports. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [3931K PDF]
Gallo, B.T., J.K. Wolff, A.J. Clark, I.L. Jirak, L.R. Blank, B. Roberts, Y. Wang, C. Zhang, M. Xue, T. Supinie, L. Harris, L. Zhou, and C. Alexander, 2021: Exploring Convection-Allowing Model Evaluation Strategies for Severe Local Storms Using the Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere (FV3) Model Core. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [3188K PDF]
Smith, B.T., R.L. Thompson, D.A. Speheger, A.R. Dean, C.D. Karstens, and A.K. Anderson-Frey, 2020: WSR-88D Tornado Intensity Estimates. Part II: Real-Time Applications to Tornado Warning Time Scales. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [3246K PDF]
Smith, B.T., R.L. Thompson, D.A. Speheger, A.R. Dean, C.D. Karstens, and A.K. Anderson-Frey, 2020: WSR-88D Tornado Intensity Estimates. Part I: Real-Time Probabilities of Peak Tornado Wind Speeds. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [3291K PDF]
Roberts, B., B. T. Gallo, I. L. Jirak, A. J. Clark, D. C. Dowell, X. Wang, and Y. Wang, 2020: What Does a Convection-Allowing Ensemble of Opportunity Buy Us in Forecasting Thunderstorms?. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [3423K PDF]
Find more research articles at the SPC publication archive.

Latest SPC Case Archive

Apr 11, 2021	Tornado: 0	Wind: 32	Hail: 22

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