NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center

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A Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms is Forecast Today and/or Tonight

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may impact parts of the Ark-La-Tex region into the lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast vicinity today and tonight. Large hail should be the main threat in parts of east Texas late this afternoon and evening.

For additional details, see the latest Day 1 Convective Outlook.

Critical fire weather conditions are forecast today. See details...

Critical fire weather conditions are forecast on Fri (12/14). See details...

Hazard	Thu (12/13)	Fri (12/14)	Sat (12/15)	Sun (12/16)	Mon (12/17)	Tue (12/18)	Wed (12/19)	Thu (12/20)
Severe	Slight	Slight	Marginal	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area
Fire	Critical	Critical	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area

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Severe Weather Climatology (1982-2011)

Any Severe Probabilities: 13 Dec

Tornado Probabilities: 13 Dec

Damaging Wind Probabilities: 13 Dec

Severe Hail Probabilities: 13 Dec

Significant Tornado Probabilities: 13 Dec

Significant Wind Probabilities: 13 Dec

Significant Hail Probabilities: 13 Dec

More severe weather climatology data here.

2018 Tornado Watch Summary

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La tormenta factor de riesgo.

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2018 Severe Tstm Watch Summary

Page last modified: December 13 2018 12:19 UTC

Wildfire Climatology (1992-2015)

100 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 13 Dec

300 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 13 Dec

1000 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 13 Dec

5000 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 13 Dec

More wildfire climatology data here.

Latest SPC Publications

Edwards, R., J.T. Allen, and G.W. Carbin^*, 2018: Reliability and Climatological Impacts of Convective Wind Estimations. Published in J. Clim. Appl. Meteor.. [4825K PDF]
Cohen, A.E.^*, J.B. Cohen, R.L. Thompson, and B.T. Smith, 2018: Simulating Tornado Probability and Tornado Wind Speed Based on Statistical Models. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [1737K PDF]
Karstens, C.D., J. Correia Jr., D.S. LaDue, J. Wolfe, T.C. Meyer, D.R. Harrison, J.L. Cintineo, K.M. Calhoun, T.M. Smith, A.E. Gerard, and L.P. Rothfusz, 2018: Development of a Human-Machine Mix for Forecasting Severe Convective Events. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [3926K PDF]
Nauslar, N.J., J.T. Abatzoglou, and P.T. Marsh, 2018: The 2017 North Bay and Southern California Fires: A Case Study. Published in Fire. [4280K PDF]
Cohen, A.E.^*, R.L. Thompson, S.M. Cavallo, R. Edwards, S.J. Weiss^*, J.A. Hart, I.L. Jirak, W.F. Bunting, J.W. Rogers^*, S.F. Piltz, A.E. Gerard, A.D. Moore, D.J. Cornish, A.C. Boothe, and J.B. Cohen, 2018: Bridging Operational Meteorology and Academia through Experiential Education: The Storm Prediction Center in the University of Oklahoma Classroom. Published in Bulletin of the AMS. [11263K PDF]
Cohen, A.E.^*, S.M. Cavallo, M.C. Coniglio, H.E. Brooks, and I.L. Jirak, 2017: Evaluation of Multiple Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization Schemes in Southeastern U.S. Cold Season Severe Weather Environments. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [4533K PDF]
Cook, A.R., L.M. Leslie, D.B. Parsons, and J.T. Schaefer^*, 2017: The Impact of El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on Winter and Early Spring U.S. Tornado Outbreaks. Published in J. Clim. Appl. Meteor.. [6970K PDF]
Find more research articles at the SPC publication archive.

Latest SPC Case Archive

Dec 09, 2018	Tornado: 2	Wind: 1	Hail: 0

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