NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center

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A Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms is Forecast Today and/or Tonight

Strong to severe storms will continue to pose a damaging wind threat across parts of Kansas and Missouri this evening. The severe threat should diminish after midnight.

For additional details, see the latest Day 1 Convective Outlook.

Critical fire weather conditions are forecast today. See details...

Hazard	Thu (08/16)	Fri (08/17)	Sat (08/18)	Sun (08/19)	Mon (08/20)	Tue (08/21)	Wed (08/22)	Thu (08/23)
Severe	Slight	Slight	Marginal	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area
Fire	Critical	Elevated	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area

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Severe Weather Climatology (1982-2011)

Any Severe Probabilities: 17 Aug

Tornado Probabilities: 17 Aug

Damaging Wind Probabilities: 17 Aug

Severe Hail Probabilities: 17 Aug

Significant Tornado Probabilities: 17 Aug

Significant Wind Probabilities: 17 Aug

Significant Hail Probabilities: 17 Aug

More severe weather climatology data here.

Today's Storm Report Trend


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Full-size plot here.

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2018 Watch Summaries

Page last modified: August 15 2018 12:17 UTC

Wildfire Climatology (1992-2015)

100 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 17 Aug

300 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 17 Aug

1000 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 17 Aug

5000 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 17 Aug

More wildfire climatology data here.

Latest SPC Publications

Edwards, R., J.T. Allen, and G.W. Carbin^*, 2018: Reliability and Climatological Impacts of Convective Wind Estimations. Published in J. Clim. Appl. Meteor.. [4825K PDF]
Karstens, C.D., J. Correia Jr., D.S. LaDue, J. Wolfe, T.C. Meyer, D.R. Harrison, J.L. Cinteneo, K.M. Calhoun, T.M. Smith, A.E. Gerard, and L.P. Rothfusz, 2018: Development of a Human-Machine Mix for Forecasting Severe Convective Events. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [3926K PDF]
Nauslar, N.J., J.T. Abatzoglou, and P.T. Marsh, 2018: The 2017 North Bay and Southern California Fires: A Case Study. Published in Fire. [4280K PDF]
Cohen, A.E.^*, R.L. Thompson, S.M. Cavallo, R. Edwards, S.J. Weiss^*, J.A. Hart, I.L. Jirak, W.F. Bunting, J.W. Rogers^*, S.F. Piltz, A.E. Gerard, A.D. Moore, D.J. Cornish, A.C. Boothe, and J.B. Cohen, 2018: Bridging Operational Meteorology and Academia through Experiential Education: The Storm Prediction Center in the University of Oklahoma Classroom. Published in Bulletin of the AMS. [11263K PDF]
Cohen, A.E.^*, S.M. Cavallo, M.C. Coniglio, and H.E. Brooks, 2017: Evaluation of Multiple Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization Schemes in Southeastern U.S. Cold Season Severe Weather Environments. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [4533K PDF]
Cook, A.R., L.M. Leslie, D.B. Parsons, and J.T. Schaefer^*, 2017: The Impact of El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on Winter and Early Spring U.S. Tornado Outbreaks. Published in J. Clim. Appl. Meteor.. [6970K PDF]
Find more research articles at the SPC publication archive.

Latest SPC Case Archive

Aug 15, 2018	Tornado: 0	Wind: 22	Hail: 24

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