NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center

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A Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms is Forecast Today and/or Tonight

A few tornadoes will be possible across parts of central and southern Florida Tuesday into Tuesday night, in association with Hurricane Ian.

For additional details, see the latest Day 1 Convective Outlook.

Critical fire weather conditions are forecast on Wed (09/28). See details...
HURRICANE IAN Related Information:

Visit National Hurricane Center for comprehensive information

Day 1 Outlook

Hazard	Tue (09/27)	Wed (09/28)	Thu (09/29)	Fri (09/30)	Sat (10/01)	Sun (10/02)	Mon (10/03)	Tue (10/04)
Severe	Slight	Slight	Slight	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area
Fire	Elevated	Critical	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area

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Severe Weather Climatology (1982-2011)

Any Severe Probabilities: 27 Sep

Tornado Probabilities: 27 Sep

Damaging Wind Probabilities: 27 Sep

Severe Hail Probabilities: 27 Sep

Significant Tornado Probabilities: 27 Sep

Significant Wind Probabilities: 27 Sep

Significant Hail Probabilities: 27 Sep

More severe weather climatology data here.

Today's Storm Report Trend


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Full-size plot here.

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2022 Watch Summaries

Page last modified: September 26 2022 12:28 UTC

Wildfire Climatology (1992-2015)

100 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 27 Sep

300 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 27 Sep

1000 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 27 Sep

5000 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 27 Sep

More wildfire climatology data here.

Latest SPC Publications

Harrison, D.R., M.S. Elliott, I.L. Jirak, and P.T. Marsh, 2022: Utilizing the High-Resolution Ensemble Forecast System to Produce Calibrated Probabilistic Thunderstorm Guidance. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [2549K PDF]
Bentley, E.S., R.L. Thompson, B.R. Bowers, J.G. Gibbs, and S.E. Nelson, 2021: An Analysis of 2016-18 Tornadoes and National Weather Service Tornado Warnings across the Contiguous United States. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [2942K PDF]
Edwards, R., H.E. Brooks, and H. Cohn, 2021: Changes in Tornado Climatology Accompanying the Enhanced Fujita Scale. Published in J. Appl. Meteor. Clim. [2250K PDF]
Krocak, M.J., M.D. Flournoy, and H.E. Brooks, 2021: Examining Subdaily Tornado Warning Performance and Associated Environmental Characteristics. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [888K PDF]
Krocak, M.J., and H.E. Brooks, 2021: The Influence of Weather Watch Type on the Quality of Tornado Warnings and Its Implications for Future Forecasting Systems. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [537K PDF]
Krocak, M.J., J.N. Allan, J.T. Ripberger, C.L. Silva, and H.C. Jenkins-Smith, 2021: An Analysis of Tornado Warning Reception and Response across Time: Leveraging Respondents' Confidence and a Nocturnal Tornado Climatology. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [938K PDF]
Trujillo-Falcon, J.E., O. Bermudez, K. Negron-Hernandez, J. Lipski, E. Leitman, and K. Berry, 2021: Hazardous Weather Communication en Espanol: Challenges, Current Resources, and Future Practices. Published in Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. [5004K PDF]
Find more research articles at the SPC publication archive.

Latest SPC Case Archive

Sep 25, 2022	Tornado: 0	Wind: 95	Hail: 7

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