NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center

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A Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms is Forecast Today and/or Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts will persist this evening mainly over southern Arizona.

For additional details, see the latest Day 1 Convective Outlook.

Critical fire weather conditions are forecast on Tue (07/23). See details...

Hazard	Mon (07/22)	Tue (07/23)	Wed (07/24)	Thu (07/25)	Fri (07/26)	Sat (07/27)	Sun (07/28)	Mon (07/29)
Severe	Slight	Marginal	Marginal	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area
Fire	Elevated	Critical	Critical	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area

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Severe Weather Climatology (1982-2011)

Any Severe Probabilities: 23 Jul

Tornado Probabilities: 23 Jul

Damaging Wind Probabilities: 23 Jul

Severe Hail Probabilities: 23 Jul

Significant Tornado Probabilities: 23 Jul

Significant Wind Probabilities: 23 Jul

Significant Hail Probabilities: 23 Jul

More severe weather climatology data here.

Today's Storm Report Trend


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Full-size plot here.

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2019 Watch Summaries

Page last modified: July 22 2019 12:25 UTC

Wildfire Climatology (1992-2015)

100 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 23 Jul

300 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 23 Jul

1000 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 23 Jul

5000 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 23 Jul

More wildfire climatology data here.

Latest SPC Publications

Nauslar, N.J., B.J. Hatchett, T.J. Brown, M.L. Kaplan, and J.F. Mejia, 2019: Impact of the North American monsoon on wildfire activity in the southwest United States. Published in International Journal of Climatology. [2095K PDF]
Gallo, B.T., A.J. Clark, B.T. Smith, R.L. Thompson, I. Jirak, and S.R. Dembek, 2019: Incorporating UH Occurrence Time to Ensemble-Derived Tornado Probabilities. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [2272K PDF]
Edwards, R., J.T. Allen, and G.W. Carbin^*, 2018: Reliability and Climatological Impacts of Convective Wind Estimations. Published in J. Clim. Appl. Meteor.. [4825K PDF]
Cohen, A.E.^*, J.B. Cohen, R.L. Thompson, and B.T. Smith, 2018: Simulating Tornado Probability and Tornado Wind Speed Based on Statistical Models. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [1737K PDF]
Karstens, C.D., J. Correia Jr., D.S. LaDue, J. Wolfe, T.C. Meyer, D.R. Harrison, J.L. Cintineo, K.M. Calhoun, T.M. Smith, A.E. Gerard, and L.P. Rothfusz, 2018: Development of a Human-Machine Mix for Forecasting Severe Convective Events. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [3926K PDF]
Nauslar, N.J., J.T. Abatzoglou, and P.T. Marsh, 2018: The 2017 North Bay and Southern California Fires: A Case Study. Published in Fire. [4280K PDF]
Cohen, A.E.^*, R.L. Thompson, S.M. Cavallo, R. Edwards, S.J. Weiss^*, J.A. Hart, I.L. Jirak, W.F. Bunting, J.W. Rogers^*, S.F. Piltz, A.E. Gerard, A.D. Moore, D.J. Cornish, A.C. Boothe, and J.B. Cohen, 2018: Bridging Operational Meteorology and Academia through Experiential Education: The Storm Prediction Center in the University of Oklahoma Classroom. Published in Bulletin of the AMS. [11263K PDF]
Cohen, A.E.^*, S.M. Cavallo, M.C. Coniglio, H.E. Brooks, and I.L. Jirak, 2017: Evaluation of Multiple Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization Schemes in Southeastern U.S. Cold Season Severe Weather Environments. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [4533K PDF]
Find more research articles at the SPC publication archive.

Latest SPC Case Archive

Jul 21, 2019	Tornado: 0	Wind: 202	Hail: 17

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