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A Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms is Forecast Today and/or Tonight

Isolated damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes remain possible from the central Gulf Coast region this afternoon, to west central Florida late tonight.

For additional details, see the latest Day 1 Convective Outlook.

Hazard	Wed (01/23)	Thu (01/24)	Fri (01/25)	Sat (01/26)	Sun (01/27)	Mon (01/28)	Tue (01/29)	Wed (01/30)
Severe	Slight	Marginal	No Thunder	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area
Fire	Elevated	No Critical	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area

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Severe Weather Climatology (1982-2011)

Any Severe Probabilities: 23 Jan

Tornado Probabilities: 23 Jan

Damaging Wind Probabilities: 23 Jan

Severe Hail Probabilities: 23 Jan

Significant Tornado Probabilities: 23 Jan

Significant Wind Probabilities: 23 Jan

Significant Hail Probabilities: 23 Jan

More severe weather climatology data here.

2019 Tornado Watch Summary

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What's My Risk?

La tormenta factor de riesgo.

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2019 Severe Tstm Watch Summary

Page last modified: January 23 2019 12:15 UTC

Wildfire Climatology (1992-2015)

100 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 23 Jan

300 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 23 Jan

1000 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 23 Jan

5000 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 23 Jan

More wildfire climatology data here.

Latest SPC Publications

Gallo, B.T., A.J. Clark, B.T. Smith, R.L. Thompson, I. Jirak, and S.R. Dembek, 2019: Incorporating UH Occurrence Time to Ensemble-Derived Tornado Probabilities. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [2272K PDF]
Edwards, R., J.T. Allen, and G.W. Carbin^*, 2018: Reliability and Climatological Impacts of Convective Wind Estimations. Published in J. Clim. Appl. Meteor.. [4825K PDF]
Cohen, A.E.^*, J.B. Cohen, R.L. Thompson, and B.T. Smith, 2018: Simulating Tornado Probability and Tornado Wind Speed Based on Statistical Models. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [1737K PDF]
Karstens, C.D., J. Correia Jr., D.S. LaDue, J. Wolfe, T.C. Meyer, D.R. Harrison, J.L. Cintineo, K.M. Calhoun, T.M. Smith, A.E. Gerard, and L.P. Rothfusz, 2018: Development of a Human-Machine Mix for Forecasting Severe Convective Events. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [3926K PDF]
Nauslar, N.J., J.T. Abatzoglou, and P.T. Marsh, 2018: The 2017 North Bay and Southern California Fires: A Case Study. Published in Fire. [4280K PDF]
Cohen, A.E.^*, R.L. Thompson, S.M. Cavallo, R. Edwards, S.J. Weiss^*, J.A. Hart, I.L. Jirak, W.F. Bunting, J.W. Rogers^*, S.F. Piltz, A.E. Gerard, A.D. Moore, D.J. Cornish, A.C. Boothe, and J.B. Cohen, 2018: Bridging Operational Meteorology and Academia through Experiential Education: The Storm Prediction Center in the University of Oklahoma Classroom. Published in Bulletin of the AMS. [11263K PDF]
Cohen, A.E.^*, S.M. Cavallo, M.C. Coniglio, H.E. Brooks, and I.L. Jirak, 2017: Evaluation of Multiple Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization Schemes in Southeastern U.S. Cold Season Severe Weather Environments. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [4533K PDF]
Find more research articles at the SPC publication archive.

Latest SPC Case Archive

Jan 19, 2019	Tornado: 4	Wind: 52	Hail: 1

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