NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center

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A Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms is Forecast for Fri (09/30)

A few tornadoes will be possible Friday into Friday night across the coastal Carolinas and southeast Virginia, in association with Tropical Cyclone Ian. A few strong gusts may also occur across the southern and eastern Utah/western Colorado vicinity Friday afternoon.

For additional details, see the latest Day 2 Convective Outlook.

SPC Products Overview

Hazard	Thu (09/29)	Fri (09/30)	Sat (10/01)	Sun (10/02)	Mon (10/03)	Tue (10/04)	Wed (10/05)	Thu (10/06)
Severe	No Severe	Slight	No Severe	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area
Fire	Elevated	Elevated	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area

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MDs

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Fire

Severe Weather Climatology (1982-2011)

Any Severe Probabilities: 30 Sep

Tornado Probabilities: 30 Sep

Damaging Wind Probabilities: 30 Sep

Severe Hail Probabilities: 30 Sep

Significant Tornado Probabilities: 30 Sep

Significant Wind Probabilities: 30 Sep

Significant Hail Probabilities: 30 Sep

More severe weather climatology data here.

Today's Storm Report Trend


report time

Full-size plot here.

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La tormenta factor de riesgo.

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2022 Watch Summaries

Page last modified: September 29 2022 12:35 UTC

Wildfire Climatology (1992-2015)

100 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 30 Sep

300 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 30 Sep

1000 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 30 Sep

5000 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 30 Sep

More wildfire climatology data here.

Latest SPC Publications

Harrison, D.R., M.S. Elliott, I.L. Jirak, and P.T. Marsh, 2022: Utilizing the High-Resolution Ensemble Forecast System to Produce Calibrated Probabilistic Thunderstorm Guidance. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [2549K PDF]
Bentley, E.S., R.L. Thompson, B.R. Bowers, J.G. Gibbs, and S.E. Nelson, 2021: An Analysis of 2016-18 Tornadoes and National Weather Service Tornado Warnings across the Contiguous United States. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [2942K PDF]
Edwards, R., H.E. Brooks, and H. Cohn, 2021: Changes in Tornado Climatology Accompanying the Enhanced Fujita Scale. Published in J. Appl. Meteor. Clim. [2250K PDF]
Krocak, M.J., M.D. Flournoy, and H.E. Brooks, 2021: Examining Subdaily Tornado Warning Performance and Associated Environmental Characteristics. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [888K PDF]
Krocak, M.J., and H.E. Brooks, 2021: The Influence of Weather Watch Type on the Quality of Tornado Warnings and Its Implications for Future Forecasting Systems. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [537K PDF]
Krocak, M.J., J.N. Allan, J.T. Ripberger, C.L. Silva, and H.C. Jenkins-Smith, 2021: An Analysis of Tornado Warning Reception and Response across Time: Leveraging Respondents' Confidence and a Nocturnal Tornado Climatology. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [938K PDF]
Trujillo-Falcon, J.E., O. Bermudez, K. Negron-Hernandez, J. Lipski, E. Leitman, and K. Berry, 2021: Hazardous Weather Communication en Espanol: Challenges, Current Resources, and Future Practices. Published in Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. [5004K PDF]
Find more research articles at the SPC publication archive.

Latest SPC Case Archive

Sep 27, 2022	Tornado: 10	Wind: 5	Hail: 0

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