NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center

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A Moderate Risk of Severe Thunderstorms is Forecast Today and/or Tonight

The greatest threat for severe thunderstorms reamins across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valley regions into the Mid-South today into tonight, with damaging gusts, large hail and a few tornadoes possible.

For additional details, see the latest Day 1 Convective Outlook.

Hazard	Fri (07/20)	Sat (07/21)	Sun (07/22)	Mon (07/23)	Tue (07/24)	Wed (07/25)	Thu (07/26)	Fri (07/27)
Severe	Moderate	Slight	Marginal	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area
Fire	Elevated	Elevated	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area

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Severe Weather Climatology (1982-2011)

Any Severe Probabilities: 20 Jul

Tornado Probabilities: 20 Jul

Damaging Wind Probabilities: 20 Jul

Severe Hail Probabilities: 20 Jul

Significant Tornado Probabilities: 20 Jul

Significant Wind Probabilities: 20 Jul

Significant Hail Probabilities: 20 Jul

More severe weather climatology data here.

Today's Storm Report Trend


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Full-size plot here.

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2018 Watch Summaries

Page last modified: July 20 2018 12:17 UTC

Wildfire Climatology (1992-2015)

100 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 20 Jul

300 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 20 Jul

1000 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 20 Jul

5000 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 20 Jul

More wildfire climatology data here.

Latest SPC Publications

Nauslar, N.J., J.T. Abatzoglou, and P.T. Marsh, 2018: The 2017 North Bay and Southern California Fires: A Case Study. Published in Fire. [4280K PDF]
Karstens, C.D., J. Correia Jr., D.S. LaDue, J. Wolfe, T.C. Meyer, D.R. Harrison, J.L. Cinteneo, K.M. Calhoun, T.M. Smith, A.E. Gerard, and L.P. Rothfusz, 2018: Development of a Human-Machine Mix for Forecasting Severe Convective Events. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [3926K PDF]
Cohen, A.E.^*, R.L. Thompson, S.M. Cavallo, R. Edwards, S.J. Weiss, J.A. Hart, I.L. Jirak, W.F. Bunting, J.W. Rogers^*, S.F. Piltz, A.E. Gerard, A.D. Moore, D.J. Cornish, A.C. Boothe, and J.B. Cohen, 2018: Bridging Operational Meteorology and Academia through Experiential Education: The Storm Prediction Center in the University of Oklahoma Classroom. Published in Bulletin of the AMS. [11263K PDF]
Cohen, A.E.^*, S.M. Cavallo, M.C. Coniglio, and H.E. Brooks, 2017: Evaluation of Multiple Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization Schemes in Southeastern U.S. Cold Season Severe Weather Environments. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [4533K PDF]
Cook, A.R., L.M. Leslie, D.B. Parsons, and J.T. Schaefer^*, 2017: The Impact of El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on Winter and Early Spring U.S. Tornado Outbreaks. Published in J. Clim. Appl. Meteor.. [6970K PDF]
Find more research articles at the SPC publication archive.

Latest SPC Case Archive

Jul 19, 2018	Tornado: 33	Wind: 164	Hail: 64

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