NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center

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A Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms is Forecast Today and/or Tonight

Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing both damaging winds and large hail should develop through evening from parts of the southern Plains into the lower Ohio Valley, lower Great Lakes and Northeast. A tornado or two may occur as well.

For additional details, see the latest Day 1 Convective Outlook.

SPC Products Overview

Hazard	Sat (05/21)	Sun (05/22)	Mon (05/23)	Tue (05/24)	Wed (05/25)	Thu (05/26)	Fri (05/27)	Sat (05/28)
Severe	Slight	Slight	Marginal	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area
Fire	Elevated	Elevated	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area

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Severe Weather Climatology (1982-2011)

Any Severe Probabilities: 21 May

Tornado Probabilities: 21 May

Damaging Wind Probabilities: 21 May

Severe Hail Probabilities: 21 May

Significant Tornado Probabilities: 21 May

Significant Wind Probabilities: 21 May

Significant Hail Probabilities: 21 May

More severe weather climatology data here.

2022 Tornado Watch Summary

Page last modified: May 21 2022 12:27 UTC

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La tormenta factor de riesgo.

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2022 Severe Tstm Watch Summary

Page last modified: May 21 2022 12:27 UTC

Wildfire Climatology (1992-2015)

100 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 21 May

300 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 21 May

1000 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 21 May

5000 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 21 May

More wildfire climatology data here.

Latest SPC Publications

Bentley, E.S., R.L. Thompson, B.R. Bowers, J.G. Gibbs, and S.E. Nelson, 2021: An Analysis of 2016-18 Tornadoes and National Weather Service Tornado Warnings across the Contiguous United States. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [2942K PDF]
Edwards, R., H.E. Brooks, and H. Cohn, 2021: Changes in Tornado Climatology Accompanying the Enhanced Fujita Scale. Published in J. Appl. Meteor. Clim. [2250K PDF]
Krocak, M.J., M.D. Flournoy, and H.E. Brooks, 2021: Examining Subdaily Tornado Warning Performance and Associated Environmental Characteristics. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [888K PDF]
Krocak, M.J., and H.E. Brooks, 2021: The Influence of Weather Watch Type on the Quality of Tornado Warnings and Its Implications for Future Forecasting Systems. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [537K PDF]
Krocak, M.J., J.N. Allan, J.T. Ripberger, C.L. Silva, and H.C. Jenkins-Smith, 2021: An Analysis of Tornado Warning Reception and Response across Time: Leveraging Respondents' Confidence and a Nocturnal Tornado Climatology. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [938K PDF]
Trujillo-Falcon, J.E., O. Bermudez, K. Negron-Hernandez, J. Lipski, E. Leitman, and K. Berry, 2021: Hazardous Weather Communication en Espanol: Challenges, Current Resources, and Future Practices. Published in Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. [5004K PDF]
Find more research articles at the SPC publication archive.

Latest SPC Case Archive

May 19, 2022	Tornado: 3	Wind: 151	Hail: 221

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