NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center

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A Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms is Forecast Today and/or Tonight

Severe thunderstorms, including the risk for large hail, damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes remain a concern across south-central and east Texas toward the ArkLaTex region this afternoon through evening.

For additional details, see the latest Day 1 Convective Outlook.

Critical fire weather conditions are forecast on Wed (05/19). See details...

SPC Products Overview

Hazard	Tue (05/18)	Wed (05/19)	Thu (05/20)	Fri (05/21)	Sat (05/22)	Sun (05/23)	Mon (05/24)	Tue (05/25)
Severe	Slight	Slight	Slight	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area
Fire	Elevated	Critical	Critical	Critical	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area

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Severe Weather Climatology (1982-2011)

Any Severe Probabilities: 19 May

Tornado Probabilities: 19 May

Damaging Wind Probabilities: 19 May

Severe Hail Probabilities: 19 May

Significant Tornado Probabilities: 19 May

Significant Wind Probabilities: 19 May

Significant Hail Probabilities: 19 May

More severe weather climatology data here.

Today's Storm Report Trend


report time

Full-size plot here.

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La tormenta factor de riesgo.

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2021 Watch Summaries

Page last modified: May 18 2021 12:26 UTC

Wildfire Climatology (1992-2015)

100 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 19 May

300 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 19 May

1000 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 19 May

5000 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 19 May

More wildfire climatology data here.

Latest SPC Publications

Wendt, N.A., and I.L. Jirak, 2021: An Hourly Climatology of Operational MRMS MESH-Diagnosed Severe and Significant Hail with Comparisons to Storm Data Hail Reports. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [3931K PDF]
Gallo, B.T., J.K. Wolff, A.J. Clark, I.L. Jirak, L.R. Blank, B. Roberts, Y. Wang, C. Zhang, M. Xue, T. Supinie, L. Harris, L. Zhou, and C. Alexander, 2021: Exploring Convection-Allowing Model Evaluation Strategies for Severe Local Storms Using the Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere (FV3) Model Core. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [3188K PDF]
Smith, B.T., R.L. Thompson, D.A. Speheger, A.R. Dean, C.D. Karstens, and A.K. Anderson-Frey, 2020: WSR-88D Tornado Intensity Estimates. Part II: Real-Time Applications to Tornado Warning Time Scales. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [3246K PDF]
Smith, B.T., R.L. Thompson, D.A. Speheger, A.R. Dean, C.D. Karstens, and A.K. Anderson-Frey, 2020: WSR-88D Tornado Intensity Estimates. Part I: Real-Time Probabilities of Peak Tornado Wind Speeds. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [3291K PDF]
Roberts, B., B. T. Gallo, I. L. Jirak, A. J. Clark, D. C. Dowell, X. Wang, and Y. Wang, 2020: What Does a Convection-Allowing Ensemble of Opportunity Buy Us in Forecasting Thunderstorms?. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [3423K PDF]
Find more research articles at the SPC publication archive.

Latest SPC Case Archive

May 17, 2021	Tornado: 20	Wind: 32	Hail: 68

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