NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center

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A Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms is Forecast Today and/or Tonight

Severe storms are expected this afternoon and evening mainly from Minnesota into southeast South Dakota and northern Nebraska.

For additional details, see the latest Day 1 Convective Outlook.

Hazard	Thu (09/16)	Fri (09/17)	Sat (09/18)	Sun (09/19)	Mon (09/20)	Tue (09/21)	Wed (09/22)	Thu (09/23)
Severe	Slight	No Severe	No Severe	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area
Fire	Elevated	Elevated	Critical	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area

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Severe Weather Climatology (1982-2011)

Any Severe Probabilities: 17 Sep

Tornado Probabilities: 17 Sep

Damaging Wind Probabilities: 17 Sep

Severe Hail Probabilities: 17 Sep

Significant Tornado Probabilities: 17 Sep

Significant Wind Probabilities: 17 Sep

Significant Hail Probabilities: 17 Sep

More severe weather climatology data here.

Today's Storm Report Trend


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Full-size plot here.

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2021 Watch Summaries

Page last modified: September 16 2021 12:26 UTC

Wildfire Climatology (1992-2015)

100 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 17 Sep

300 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 17 Sep

1000 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 17 Sep

5000 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 17 Sep

More wildfire climatology data here.

Latest SPC Publications

Wendt, N.A., and I.L. Jirak, 2021: An Hourly Climatology of Operational MRMS MESH-Diagnosed Severe and Significant Hail with Comparisons to Storm Data Hail Reports. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [3931K PDF]
Gallo, B.T., J.K. Wolff, A.J. Clark, I.L. Jirak, L.R. Blank, B. Roberts, Y. Wang, C. Zhang, M. Xue, T. Supinie, L. Harris, L. Zhou, and C. Alexander, 2021: Exploring Convection-Allowing Model Evaluation Strategies for Severe Local Storms Using the Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere (FV3) Model Core. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [3188K PDF]
Smith, B.T., R.L. Thompson, D.A. Speheger, A.R. Dean, C.D. Karstens, and A.K. Anderson-Frey, 2020: WSR-88D Tornado Intensity Estimates. Part II: Real-Time Applications to Tornado Warning Time Scales. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [3246K PDF]
Smith, B.T., R.L. Thompson, D.A. Speheger, A.R. Dean, C.D. Karstens, and A.K. Anderson-Frey, 2020: WSR-88D Tornado Intensity Estimates. Part I: Real-Time Probabilities of Peak Tornado Wind Speeds. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [3291K PDF]
Roberts, B., B. T. Gallo, I. L. Jirak, A. J. Clark, D. C. Dowell, X. Wang, and Y. Wang, 2020: What Does a Convection-Allowing Ensemble of Opportunity Buy Us in Forecasting Thunderstorms?. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [3423K PDF]
Find more research articles at the SPC publication archive.

Latest SPC Case Archive

Sep 15, 2021	Tornado: 0	Wind: 79	Hail: 9

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