NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center

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A Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms is Forecast Today and/or Tonight

Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon and evening, mainly across eastern Wyoming/Colorado into western Nebraska/Kansas. Severe thunderstorms, mainly capable of damaging wind gusts, are also expected across portions of southeast Virginia into northeast North Carolina this afternoon and evening.

For additional details, see the latest Day 1 Convective Outlook.

Critical fire weather conditions are forecast on Sat (08/24). See details...

Hazard	Fri (08/23)	Sat (08/24)	Sun (08/25)	Mon (08/26)	Tue (08/27)	Wed (08/28)	Thu (08/29)	Fri (08/30)
Severe	Slight	Marginal	Marginal	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area
Fire	Elevated	Critical	Critical	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area

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Severe Weather Climatology (1982-2011)

Any Severe Probabilities: 23 Aug

Tornado Probabilities: 23 Aug

Damaging Wind Probabilities: 23 Aug

Severe Hail Probabilities: 23 Aug

Significant Tornado Probabilities: 23 Aug

Significant Wind Probabilities: 23 Aug

Significant Hail Probabilities: 23 Aug

More severe weather climatology data here.

Today's Storm Report Trend


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Full-size plot here.

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2019 Watch Summaries

Page last modified: August 22 2019 12:27 UTC

Wildfire Climatology (1992-2015)

100 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 23 Aug

300 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 23 Aug

1000 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 23 Aug

5000 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 23 Aug

More wildfire climatology data here.

Latest SPC Publications

Nauslar, N.J., B.J. Hatchett, T.J. Brown, M.L. Kaplan, and J.F. Mejia, 2019: Impact of the North American monsoon on wildfire activity in the southwest United States. Published in International Journal of Climatology. [2095K PDF]
Gallo, B.T., A.J. Clark, B.T. Smith, R.L. Thompson, I. Jirak, and S.R. Dembek, 2019: Incorporating UH Occurrence Time to Ensemble-Derived Tornado Probabilities. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [2272K PDF]
Edwards, R., J.T. Allen, and G.W. Carbin^*, 2018: Reliability and Climatological Impacts of Convective Wind Estimations. Published in J. Clim. Appl. Meteor.. [4825K PDF]
Cohen, A.E.^*, J.B. Cohen, R.L. Thompson, and B.T. Smith, 2018: Simulating Tornado Probability and Tornado Wind Speed Based on Statistical Models. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [1737K PDF]
Karstens, C.D., J. Correia Jr., D.S. LaDue, J. Wolfe, T.C. Meyer, D.R. Harrison, J.L. Cintineo, K.M. Calhoun, T.M. Smith, A.E. Gerard, and L.P. Rothfusz, 2018: Development of a Human-Machine Mix for Forecasting Severe Convective Events. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [3926K PDF]
Nauslar, N.J., J.T. Abatzoglou, and P.T. Marsh, 2018: The 2017 North Bay and Southern California Fires: A Case Study. Published in Fire. [4280K PDF]
Cohen, A.E.^*, R.L. Thompson, S.M. Cavallo, R. Edwards, S.J. Weiss^*, J.A. Hart, I.L. Jirak, W.F. Bunting, J.W. Rogers^*, S.F. Piltz, A.E. Gerard, A.D. Moore, D.J. Cornish, A.C. Boothe, and J.B. Cohen, 2018: Bridging Operational Meteorology and Academia through Experiential Education: The Storm Prediction Center in the University of Oklahoma Classroom. Published in Bulletin of the AMS. [11263K PDF]
Cohen, A.E.^*, S.M. Cavallo, M.C. Coniglio, H.E. Brooks, and I.L. Jirak, 2017: Evaluation of Multiple Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization Schemes in Southeastern U.S. Cold Season Severe Weather Environments. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [4533K PDF]
Find more research articles at the SPC publication archive.

Latest SPC Case Archive

Aug 21, 2019	Tornado: 0	Wind: 181	Hail: 20

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