NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center

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An Enhanced Risk of Severe Thunderstorms is Forecast Today and/or Tonight

Scattered to numerous severe storms with damaging winds, a couple of tornadoes and isolated large hail are expected from late morning through the afternoon from central/eastern New York to the Mid_Atlantic. Damaging winds and isolated large hail will also be possible this afternoon and early tonight from eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle.

For additional details, see the latest Day 1 Convective Outlook.

Critical fire weather conditions are forecast on Tue (05/17). See details...

SPC Products Overview

Hazard	Mon (05/16)	Tue (05/17)	Wed (05/18)	Thu (05/19)	Fri (05/20)	Sat (05/21)	Sun (05/22)	Mon (05/23)
Severe	Enhanced	Slight	Marginal	Severe	Severe	Severe	No Area	No Area
Fire	Elevated	Critical	No Area	Critical	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area

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Severe Weather Climatology (1982-2011)

Any Severe Probabilities: 16 May

Tornado Probabilities: 16 May

Damaging Wind Probabilities: 16 May

Severe Hail Probabilities: 16 May

Significant Tornado Probabilities: 16 May

Significant Wind Probabilities: 16 May

Significant Hail Probabilities: 16 May

More severe weather climatology data here.

2022 Tornado Watch Summary

Page last modified: May 16 2022 12:27 UTC

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2022 Severe Tstm Watch Summary

Page last modified: May 16 2022 12:27 UTC

Wildfire Climatology (1992-2015)

100 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 16 May

300 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 16 May

1000 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 16 May

5000 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 16 May

More wildfire climatology data here.

Latest SPC Publications

Bentley, E.S., R.L. Thompson, B.R. Bowers, J.G. Gibbs, and S.E. Nelson, 2021: An Analysis of 2016-18 Tornadoes and National Weather Service Tornado Warnings across the Contiguous United States. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [2942K PDF]
Edwards, R., H.E. Brooks, and H. Cohn, 2021: Changes in Tornado Climatology Accompanying the Enhanced Fujita Scale. Published in J. Appl. Meteor. Clim. [2250K PDF]
Krocak, M.J., M.D. Flournoy, and H.E. Brooks, 2021: Examining Subdaily Tornado Warning Performance and Associated Environmental Characteristics. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [888K PDF]
Krocak, M.J., and H.E. Brooks, 2021: The Influence of Weather Watch Type on the Quality of Tornado Warnings and Its Implications for Future Forecasting Systems. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [537K PDF]
Krocak, M.J., J.N. Allan, J.T. Ripberger, C.L. Silva, and H.C. Jenkins-Smith, 2021: An Analysis of Tornado Warning Reception and Response across Time: Leveraging Respondents' Confidence and a Nocturnal Tornado Climatology. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [938K PDF]
Trujillo-Falcon, J.E., O. Bermudez, K. Negron-Hernandez, J. Lipski, E. Leitman, and K. Berry, 2021: Hazardous Weather Communication en Espanol: Challenges, Current Resources, and Future Practices. Published in Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. [5004K PDF]
Find more research articles at the SPC publication archive.

Latest SPC Case Archive

May 15, 2022	Tornado: 2	Wind: 149	Hail: 139

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