NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center

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A Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms is Forecast Today and/or Tonight

Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of mainly hail and damaging winds are possible from southeast New Mexico across the South Plains and into parts of northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma from late afternoon Monday through evening. Isolated strong to severe storms are also possible across parts of southern Wisconsin, eastern Iowa, and northern Illinois. A weak, brief tornado cannot be ruled out in either area.

For additional details, see the latest Day 1 Convective Outlook.

Hazard	Mon (04/22)	Tue (04/23)	Wed (04/24)	Thu (04/25)	Fri (04/26)	Sat (04/27)	Sun (04/28)	Mon (04/29)
Severe	Slight	Slight	Severe	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area
Fire	Elevated	No Critical	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area

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Severe Weather Climatology (1982-2011)

Any Severe Probabilities: 22 Apr

Tornado Probabilities: 22 Apr

Damaging Wind Probabilities: 22 Apr

Severe Hail Probabilities: 22 Apr

Significant Tornado Probabilities: 22 Apr

Significant Wind Probabilities: 22 Apr

Significant Hail Probabilities: 22 Apr

More severe weather climatology data here.

Today's Storm Report Trend


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Full-size plot here.

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2019 Watch Summaries

Page last modified: April 21 2019 12:17 UTC

Wildfire Climatology (1992-2015)

100 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 22 Apr

300 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 22 Apr

1000 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 22 Apr

5000 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 22 Apr

More wildfire climatology data here.

Latest SPC Publications

Nauslar, N.J., B.J. Hatchett, T.J. Brown, M.L. Kaplan, and J.F. Mejia, 2019: Impact of the North American monsoon on wildfire activity in the southwest United States. Published in International Journal of Climatology. [2095K PDF]
Gallo, B.T., A.J. Clark, B.T. Smith, R.L. Thompson, I. Jirak, and S.R. Dembek, 2019: Incorporating UH Occurrence Time to Ensemble-Derived Tornado Probabilities. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [2272K PDF]
Edwards, R., J.T. Allen, and G.W. Carbin^*, 2018: Reliability and Climatological Impacts of Convective Wind Estimations. Published in J. Clim. Appl. Meteor.. [4825K PDF]
Cohen, A.E.^*, J.B. Cohen, R.L. Thompson, and B.T. Smith, 2018: Simulating Tornado Probability and Tornado Wind Speed Based on Statistical Models. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [1737K PDF]
Karstens, C.D., J. Correia Jr., D.S. LaDue, J. Wolfe, T.C. Meyer, D.R. Harrison, J.L. Cintineo, K.M. Calhoun, T.M. Smith, A.E. Gerard, and L.P. Rothfusz, 2018: Development of a Human-Machine Mix for Forecasting Severe Convective Events. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [3926K PDF]
Nauslar, N.J., J.T. Abatzoglou, and P.T. Marsh, 2018: The 2017 North Bay and Southern California Fires: A Case Study. Published in Fire. [4280K PDF]
Cohen, A.E.^*, R.L. Thompson, S.M. Cavallo, R. Edwards, S.J. Weiss^*, J.A. Hart, I.L. Jirak, W.F. Bunting, J.W. Rogers^*, S.F. Piltz, A.E. Gerard, A.D. Moore, D.J. Cornish, A.C. Boothe, and J.B. Cohen, 2018: Bridging Operational Meteorology and Academia through Experiential Education: The Storm Prediction Center in the University of Oklahoma Classroom. Published in Bulletin of the AMS. [11263K PDF]
Cohen, A.E.^*, S.M. Cavallo, M.C. Coniglio, H.E. Brooks, and I.L. Jirak, 2017: Evaluation of Multiple Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization Schemes in Southeastern U.S. Cold Season Severe Weather Environments. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [4533K PDF]
Find more research articles at the SPC publication archive.

Latest SPC Case Archive

Apr 19, 2019	Tornado: 19	Wind: 509	Hail: 0

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