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A Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms is Forecast Today and/or Tonight

Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes will be possible through late this evening across parts of Alabama, Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle. A marginal severe-storm threat is also expected early Sunday morning across extreme eastern North Carolina.

For additional details, see the latest Day 1 Convective Outlook.

Hazard	Sat (01/19)	Sun (01/20)	Mon (01/21)	Tue (01/22)	Wed (01/23)	Thu (01/24)	Fri (01/25)	Sat (01/26)
Severe	Slight	Marginal	No Thunder	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area
Fire	Elevated	No Critical	Critical	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area

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Severe Weather Climatology (1982-2011)

Any Severe Probabilities: 19 Jan

Tornado Probabilities: 19 Jan

Damaging Wind Probabilities: 19 Jan

Severe Hail Probabilities: 19 Jan

Significant Tornado Probabilities: 19 Jan

Significant Wind Probabilities: 19 Jan

Significant Hail Probabilities: 19 Jan

More severe weather climatology data here.

Today's Storm Report Trend


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Full-size plot here.

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2019 Watch Summaries

Page last modified: January 19 2019 12:15 UTC

Wildfire Climatology (1992-2015)

100 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 19 Jan

300 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 19 Jan

1000 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 19 Jan

5000 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 19 Jan

More wildfire climatology data here.

Latest SPC Publications

Lareau, N.P., N.J. Nauslar, and J.T. Abatzoglou, 2018: The Carr Fire Vortex: A Case of Pyrotornadogenesis?. Published in AGU Geophysical Research Letters. [1415K PDF]
Edwards, R., J.T. Allen, and G.W. Carbin^*, 2018: Reliability and Climatological Impacts of Convective Wind Estimations. Published in J. Clim. Appl. Meteor.. [4825K PDF]
Cohen, A.E.^*, J.B. Cohen, R.L. Thompson, and B.T. Smith, 2018: Simulating Tornado Probability and Tornado Wind Speed Based on Statistical Models. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [1737K PDF]
Karstens, C.D., J. Correia Jr., D.S. LaDue, J. Wolfe, T.C. Meyer, D.R. Harrison, J.L. Cintineo, K.M. Calhoun, T.M. Smith, A.E. Gerard, and L.P. Rothfusz, 2018: Development of a Human-Machine Mix for Forecasting Severe Convective Events. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [3926K PDF]
Nauslar, N.J., J.T. Abatzoglou, and P.T. Marsh, 2018: The 2017 North Bay and Southern California Fires: A Case Study. Published in Fire. [4280K PDF]
Cohen, A.E.^*, R.L. Thompson, S.M. Cavallo, R. Edwards, S.J. Weiss^*, J.A. Hart, I.L. Jirak, W.F. Bunting, J.W. Rogers^*, S.F. Piltz, A.E. Gerard, A.D. Moore, D.J. Cornish, A.C. Boothe, and J.B. Cohen, 2018: Bridging Operational Meteorology and Academia through Experiential Education: The Storm Prediction Center in the University of Oklahoma Classroom. Published in Bulletin of the AMS. [11263K PDF]
Cohen, A.E.^*, S.M. Cavallo, M.C. Coniglio, H.E. Brooks, and I.L. Jirak, 2017: Evaluation of Multiple Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization Schemes in Southeastern U.S. Cold Season Severe Weather Environments. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [4533K PDF]
Find more research articles at the SPC publication archive.

Latest SPC Case Archive

Jan 17, 2019	Tornado: 1	Wind: 0	Hail: 1

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