NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center

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A Major Severe Weather Outbreak is Forecast Today and/or Tonight

A tornado outbreak is ongoing across the central Gulf Coast States. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which may be long-track and potentially violent, should continue into this evening. The severe risk should spread across eastern Mississippi into Alabama through the remainder of the afternoon into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia tonight.

For additional details, see the current Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO).

Critical fire weather conditions are forecast today. See details...

SPC Products Overview

Hazard	Sat (03/15)	Sun (03/16)	Mon (03/17)	Tue (03/18)	Wed (03/19)	Thu (03/20)	Fri (03/21)	Sat (03/22)
Severe	High	Slight	No Severe	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area
Fire	Critical	Elevated	Critical	Critical	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area

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Severe Weather Climatology (1982-2011)

Any Severe Probabilities: 16 Mar

Tornado Probabilities: 16 Mar

Damaging Wind Probabilities: 16 Mar

Severe Hail Probabilities: 16 Mar

Significant Tornado Probabilities: 16 Mar

Significant Wind Probabilities: 16 Mar

Significant Hail Probabilities: 16 Mar

More severe weather climatology data here.

Today's Storm Report Trend


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Full-size plot here.

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2025 Watch Summaries

Page last modified: March 15 2025 12:28 UTC

Wildfire Climatology (1992-2015)

100 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 16 Mar

300 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 16 Mar

1000 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 16 Mar

5000 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 16 Mar

More wildfire climatology data here.

Latest SPC Publications

Edwards, R., and R.L. Thompson, 2024: Right-Moving Supercell Tornadogenesis during Interaction with a Left-Moving Supercell's Rear-Flank Outflow. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [15153K PDF] (supplemental radar loop, standard enhancements [27170K MP4]), (supplemental radar loop, colorblind enhancements [33950K MP4])
Squitieri, B.J., A.R. Wade, and I.L. Jirak, 2023: A Historical Overview on the Science of Derechos. Part II: Parent Storm Structure, Environmental Conditions, and History of Numerical Forecasts. Published in Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.. [10595K PDF]
Squitieri, B.J., A.R. Wade, and I.L. Jirak, 2023: A Historical Overview on the Science of Derechos. Part I: Identification, Climatology, and Societal Impacts. Published in Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.. [6899K PDF]
Thompson, R.L., 2023: A Comparison of Right-Moving Supercell and Quasi-Linear Convective System Tornadoes in the Contiguous United States 2003-21. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [4539K PDF]
Gallo, B.T., K.A. Wilson, J.J. Choate, K. Knopfmeier, P. Skinner, B. Roberts^*, P.L. Heinselman, I.L. Jirak, and A.J. Clark, 2022: Exploring the Watch-to-Warning Space: Experimental Outlook Performance during the 2019 Spring Forecasting Experiment in NOAA's Hazardous Weather Testbed. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [4328K PDF]
Squitieri, B.J., and W.A. Gallus Jr., 2022: On the Changes in Convection-Allowing WRF Forecasts of MCS Evolution due to Decreases in Model Horizontal and Vertical Grid Spacing. Part II: Impacts on QPFs. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [5607K PDF]
Squitieri, B.J., and W.A. Gallus Jr., 2022: On the Changes in Convection-Allowing WRF Forecasts of MCS Evolution due to Decreases in Model Horizontal and Vertical Grid Spacing. Part I: Changes in Cold Pool Evolution. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [3655K PDF]
Harrison, D.R., M.S. Elliott, I.L. Jirak, and P.T. Marsh, 2022: Utilizing the High-Resolution Ensemble Forecast System to Produce Calibrated Probabilistic Thunderstorm Guidance. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [2549K PDF]
Find more research articles at the SPC publication archive.

Latest SPC Case Archive

Mar 14, 2025	Tornado: 26	Wind: 381	Hail: 201

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