NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center

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An Enhanced Risk of Severe Thunderstorms is Forecast Today and/or Tonight

Severe thunderstorms may produce damaging gusts, a few tornadoes (possibly strong), and isolated large hail today across the lower Mississippi Valley through the central Gulf Coast region.

For additional details, see the latest Day 1 Convective Outlook.

Hazard	Thu (04/18)	Fri (04/19)	Sat (04/20)	Sun (04/21)	Mon (04/22)	Tue (04/23)	Wed (04/24)	Thu (04/25)
Severe	Enhanced	Enhanced	No Severe	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area
Fire	No Critical	No Critical	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area

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Severe Weather Climatology (1982-2011)

Any Severe Probabilities: 18 Apr

Tornado Probabilities: 18 Apr

Damaging Wind Probabilities: 18 Apr

Severe Hail Probabilities: 18 Apr

Significant Tornado Probabilities: 18 Apr

Significant Wind Probabilities: 18 Apr

Significant Hail Probabilities: 18 Apr

More severe weather climatology data here.

2019 Tornado Watch Summary

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La tormenta factor de riesgo.

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2019 Severe Tstm Watch Summary

Page last modified: April 18 2019 12:16 UTC

Wildfire Climatology (1992-2015)

100 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 18 Apr

300 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 18 Apr

1000 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 18 Apr

5000 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 18 Apr

More wildfire climatology data here.

Latest SPC Publications

Nauslar, N.J., B.J. Hatchett, T.J. Brown, M.L. Kaplan, and J.F. Mejia, 2019: Impact of the North American monsoon on wildfire activity in the southwest United States. Published in International Journal of Climatology. [2095K PDF]
Gallo, B.T., A.J. Clark, B.T. Smith, R.L. Thompson, I. Jirak, and S.R. Dembek, 2019: Incorporating UH Occurrence Time to Ensemble-Derived Tornado Probabilities. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [2272K PDF]
Edwards, R., J.T. Allen, and G.W. Carbin^*, 2018: Reliability and Climatological Impacts of Convective Wind Estimations. Published in J. Clim. Appl. Meteor.. [4825K PDF]
Cohen, A.E.^*, J.B. Cohen, R.L. Thompson, and B.T. Smith, 2018: Simulating Tornado Probability and Tornado Wind Speed Based on Statistical Models. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [1737K PDF]
Karstens, C.D., J. Correia Jr., D.S. LaDue, J. Wolfe, T.C. Meyer, D.R. Harrison, J.L. Cintineo, K.M. Calhoun, T.M. Smith, A.E. Gerard, and L.P. Rothfusz, 2018: Development of a Human-Machine Mix for Forecasting Severe Convective Events. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [3926K PDF]
Nauslar, N.J., J.T. Abatzoglou, and P.T. Marsh, 2018: The 2017 North Bay and Southern California Fires: A Case Study. Published in Fire. [4280K PDF]
Cohen, A.E.^*, R.L. Thompson, S.M. Cavallo, R. Edwards, S.J. Weiss^*, J.A. Hart, I.L. Jirak, W.F. Bunting, J.W. Rogers^*, S.F. Piltz, A.E. Gerard, A.D. Moore, D.J. Cornish, A.C. Boothe, and J.B. Cohen, 2018: Bridging Operational Meteorology and Academia through Experiential Education: The Storm Prediction Center in the University of Oklahoma Classroom. Published in Bulletin of the AMS. [11263K PDF]
Cohen, A.E.^*, S.M. Cavallo, M.C. Coniglio, H.E. Brooks, and I.L. Jirak, 2017: Evaluation of Multiple Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization Schemes in Southeastern U.S. Cold Season Severe Weather Environments. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [4533K PDF]
Find more research articles at the SPC publication archive.

Latest SPC Case Archive

Apr 17, 2019	Tornado: 7	Wind: 63	Hail: 116

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