NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center

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An Enhanced Risk of Severe Thunderstorms is Forecast Today and/or Tonight

Severe hail and wind will continue this evening and tonight from mainly from west Texas into Oklahoma. Other strong storms over the Mid Atlantic and across Montana should continue to weaken this evening.

For additional details, see the latest Day 1 Convective Outlook.

Critical fire weather conditions are forecast on Wed (06/19). See details...

Hazard	Tue (06/18)	Wed (06/19)	Thu (06/20)	Fri (06/21)	Sat (06/22)	Sun (06/23)	Mon (06/24)	Tue (06/25)
Severe	Enhanced	Slight	Slight	Severe	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area
Fire	Elevated	Critical	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area

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Severe Weather Climatology (1982-2011)

Any Severe Probabilities: 19 Jun

Tornado Probabilities: 19 Jun

Damaging Wind Probabilities: 19 Jun

Severe Hail Probabilities: 19 Jun

Significant Tornado Probabilities: 19 Jun

Significant Wind Probabilities: 19 Jun

Significant Hail Probabilities: 19 Jun

More severe weather climatology data here.

Today's Storm Report Trend


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Full-size plot here.

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2019 Watch Summaries

Page last modified: June 18 2019 12:20 UTC

Wildfire Climatology (1992-2015)

100 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 19 Jun

300 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 19 Jun

1000 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 19 Jun

5000 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 19 Jun

More wildfire climatology data here.

Latest SPC Publications

Nauslar, N.J., B.J. Hatchett, T.J. Brown, M.L. Kaplan, and J.F. Mejia, 2019: Impact of the North American monsoon on wildfire activity in the southwest United States. Published in International Journal of Climatology. [2095K PDF]
Gallo, B.T., A.J. Clark, B.T. Smith, R.L. Thompson, I. Jirak, and S.R. Dembek, 2019: Incorporating UH Occurrence Time to Ensemble-Derived Tornado Probabilities. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [2272K PDF]
Edwards, R., J.T. Allen, and G.W. Carbin^*, 2018: Reliability and Climatological Impacts of Convective Wind Estimations. Published in J. Clim. Appl. Meteor.. [4825K PDF]
Cohen, A.E.^*, J.B. Cohen, R.L. Thompson, and B.T. Smith, 2018: Simulating Tornado Probability and Tornado Wind Speed Based on Statistical Models. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [1737K PDF]
Karstens, C.D., J. Correia Jr., D.S. LaDue, J. Wolfe, T.C. Meyer, D.R. Harrison, J.L. Cintineo, K.M. Calhoun, T.M. Smith, A.E. Gerard, and L.P. Rothfusz, 2018: Development of a Human-Machine Mix for Forecasting Severe Convective Events. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [3926K PDF]
Nauslar, N.J., J.T. Abatzoglou, and P.T. Marsh, 2018: The 2017 North Bay and Southern California Fires: A Case Study. Published in Fire. [4280K PDF]
Cohen, A.E.^*, R.L. Thompson, S.M. Cavallo, R. Edwards, S.J. Weiss^*, J.A. Hart, I.L. Jirak, W.F. Bunting, J.W. Rogers^*, S.F. Piltz, A.E. Gerard, A.D. Moore, D.J. Cornish, A.C. Boothe, and J.B. Cohen, 2018: Bridging Operational Meteorology and Academia through Experiential Education: The Storm Prediction Center in the University of Oklahoma Classroom. Published in Bulletin of the AMS. [11263K PDF]
Cohen, A.E.^*, S.M. Cavallo, M.C. Coniglio, H.E. Brooks, and I.L. Jirak, 2017: Evaluation of Multiple Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization Schemes in Southeastern U.S. Cold Season Severe Weather Environments. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [4533K PDF]
Find more research articles at the SPC publication archive.

Latest SPC Case Archive

Jun 17, 2019	Tornado: 4	Wind: 103	Hail: 32

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