(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 240954
SPC AC 240954
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2023
Valid 271200Z - 041200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Monday/Day 4...
An upper-level trough and an associated 75 to 100 knot mid-level
jet, are forecast to move quickly east-northeastward into the Ohio
and Tennessee Valleys on Monday. Ahead of this feature, moisture
advection will likely increase surface dewpoints into the 50s F
across much of the region. Along the moist axis, weak instability
should develop. Any convection that can form ahead of the
upper-level trough will be supported by strong large-scale ascent
and lift associated with a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet. The
potential for convection is first expected to develop near the
Mississippi River around daybreak with convection moving quickly
eastward toward the Appalachians by midday. This convection is
forecast to remain low-topped and be embedded in a strong wind
field. For this reason, damaging wind gusts will be possible, mainly
due to downdrafts embedded in the strong surface pressure gradient.
A 15 percent area has been added to parts of eastern Kentucky and
eastern Tennessee, where the potential for severe winds appears to
be greatest.
...Tuesday/Day 5 to Friday/Day 8..
A cold front is forecast to move into the Gulf Coast states on
Tuesday, as a shortwave trough moves through the Rockies. Moisture
return on Tuesday is forecast to remain largely absent ahead of this
trough, suggesting the potential for severe thunderstorms will
remain low. On Wednesday, some moisture is forecast to advect
northward into the Gulf Coast states, where isolated to scattered
convection will be possible during the afternoon. However, model
solutions suggest that instability will remain weak, limiting the
severe weather potential. On Wednesday night into Thursday,
continued moisture advection should increase surface dewpoints up
into the 60s F from Georgia into the Carolinas. Although
thunderstorms will be possible near the axis of a low-level jet, the
weak instability that is currently forecast could be problematic.
From Thursday night into Friday, a shortwave trough is forecast to
move eastward from the southern Plains eastward across the Gulf
Coast states. Thunderstorms will be possible ahead of this feature
from the lower Mississippi Valley eastward to Florida. Although a
severe threat may develop across parts of the region, predictability
at this range remains low.
..Broyles.. 02/24/2023
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