Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Tue Apr 14 14:59:02 UTC 2015 ( | )

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   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 141458

   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0958 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

   VALID 141700Z - 151200Z

   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
   WESTERN SD...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE DAKOTAS...FAR WRN MN...MUCH OF
   CNTRL/WRN NEB...NWRN KS...ERN CO...ERN/CNTRL WY...ERN MT...WRN
   CO...AND NRN AZ...

   ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENT WERE MADE TO THE ELEVATED AND
   CRITICAL/EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREAS BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. 

   A DRY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN WY AS WELL
   AS TOWARD THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. COVERAGE
   APPEARS TOO SPARSE AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE A DRY THUNDERSTORM
   AREA...BUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...THE
   PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR
   FURTHER DETAILS.

   ..LEITMAN.. 04/14/2015

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0325 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2015/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   HIGH-END CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
   OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/WRN SD AND ADJACENT AREAS OF S-CNTRL
   ND AND N-CNTRL NEB TODAY. AN EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA
   HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR PORTIONS OF CNTRL/WRN SD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
   THREAT.

   AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING OVER THE PACIFIC NW COAST THIS
   MORNING ADVANCES EWD THROUGH THE DAY...A BROAD AREA OF ENHANCED LOW
   TO MIDLEVEL SLY/SWLY FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF THE NRN/CNTRL
   PLAINS...CNTRL ROCKIES...ERN GREAT BASIN...AND PORTIONS OF THE
   SOUTHWEST. A SFC LOW LOCATED ACROSS ID/WRN MT EARLY THIS MORNING
   WILL DEEPEN AND SHIFT EWD THROUGH THIS EVENING. LEE TROUGHING ACROSS
   THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS MAY CONTRIBUTE
   DOWNSLOPE WARMING/DRYING EFFECTS TO THIS REGION...ENHANCING THE FIRE
   WEATHER THREAT ACROSS ERN CO. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
   APPROACHING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
   REGION WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON...LEADING TO
   WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR LOCATIONS WHERE
   FUELS ARE DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS AND CNTRL ROCKIES
   REGION.

   ...MUCH OF THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS...
   FORECAST REASONING REGARDING THE ELEVATED/CRITICAL AREAS ACROSS THE
   NRN/CNTRL PLAINS REMAINS MOSTLY UNCHANGED. ALTHOUGH STRONG/GUSTY SLY
   WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS REGION...LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LACKING AS A SFC RIDGE EXTENDING SWWD FROM
   THE HIGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
   THE SRN PLAINS. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH WILL BE COMMON
   ACROSS THE CRITICAL AREA E OF THE ROCKIES...AND GUSTS MAY REACH
   40-45 MPH. WITH STRONG DIURNAL MIXING EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING
   AND AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
   UPPER 70S ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH SOME LOWER 80S POSSIBLE...AND RH
   VALUES WILL EASILY FALL TO 15-20 PERCENT. THE CRITICAL AREA HAS BEEN
   EXPANDED SLIGHTLY SWD TO INCLUDE A LARGER PORTION OF ERN CO/NWRN KS
   AS WELL AS ERN MT GIVEN LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE.

   CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30-35 MPH COMBINED
   WITH RH VALUES OF 7-12 PERCENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS PART OF
   CNTRL/WRN SD THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM RECENT
   RAP MODEL RUNS SUGGEST TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER 80S AROUND
   19Z AND REMAIN ABOVE 80 THROUGH ABOUT 23Z...WITH DIURNAL
   MIXING/DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT OF ENHANCED 850 MB WINDS LIKELY.
   AHPS 7 AND 14 DAY PRECIPITATION OBSERVATIONS INDICATE VERY
   LITTLE...IF ANY...RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THIS AREA...AND FUEL
   INFORMATION FROM WFAS SUGGESTS FINE FUELS REMAIN CRITICALLY DRY.
   AFTER COORDINATION WITH THE FORECAST OFFICES IN RAPID CITY AND
   ABERDEEN SD...AN EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA HAS BEEN
   INTRODUCED FOR PART OF CNTRL/WRN SD TO HIGHLIGHT THIS HIGH-END FIRE
   WEATHER RISK.

   ...PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL ROCKIES...ERN GREAT BASIN...AND
   SOUTHWEST...
   METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY SUPPORT A CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION...AS STRONG SWLY WINDS OF 20-45
   MPH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD COMBINE WITH RH VALUES
   BELOW 15 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...UNRECEPTIVE FUELS ACROSS
   UT AND SRN NV PER THE GREAT BASIN GACC PRECLUDES EXPANSION OF THE
   CRITICAL AREA INTO THOSE STATES. HOWEVER...GIVEN SLIGHTLY DIRER FUEL
   CONDITIONS IN NRN AZ...THE CRITICAL AREA HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO
   INCLUDE THIS AREA.

   ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR SURROUNDING
   THE CRITICAL AREA ACROSS A BROADER PORTION OF THE NRN/CNTRL
   PLAINS...CNTRL ROCKIES...ERN GREAT BASIN...AND PORTIONS OF THE
   SOUTHWEST. IN GENERAL...SLIGHTLY LOWER FORECAST WIND SPEEDS AND/OR
   MARGINAL FUEL DRYNESS ARE THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTORS FOR MOST
   LOCATIONS IN THE ELEVATED DESIGNATION.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      

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