Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Fri May 14 16:51:03 UTC 2021 (
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Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Fri May 14 16:51:03 UTC 2021 (
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Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 141650
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 AM CDT Fri May 14 2021
Valid 141700Z - 151200Z
No changes. Previous discussion follows.
..Bentley.. 05/14/2021
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CDT Fri May 14 2021/
...Synopsis...
An upper trough is forecast to amplify over the West today and
potentially develop into a closed upper low over northern CA by
Saturday morning. In response to this feature, a weak surface low is
forecast to develop over southern NV.
...Northern CA into southern OR...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible across
portions of northern CA into southern OR this afternoon and evening,
as the upper trough moves southeastward and amplifies over the
region. Relatively dry/well-mixed subcloud layers and low PW will
limit the potential for wetting rainfall. With fuels running dry
across the region, an isolated dry-thunderstorm area has been added
to cover the threat for lightning-based ignitions.
...Southwest...
In response to the approaching upper system and developing surface
low, a modest increase in southwesterly surface winds is expected
over portions of the Southwest. Elevated fire weather conditions
will be possible across portions of the lower CO River basin, where
sustained winds of greater than 15 mph are possible concurrent with
minimum RH values of 10-20%.
...Eastern ND into northern MN...
Scattered thunderstorms are again expected this afternoon from
eastern ND into northwest MN. While low-level moisture will remain
relatively limited, an increase in PW (compared to Thursday) and
slow storm motions should result in generally wet thunderstorms.
However, with very dry fuels over the region, there may be a nonzero
threat of lightning-based ignitions with strikes that occur away
from the heavier precipitation cores.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...