Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Fri May 14 16:51:03 UTC 2021 (20210514 1700Z Day 1 FireWX shapefile | 20210514 1700Z Day 1 FireWX KML)

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

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   FNUS21 KWNS 141650

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1150 AM CDT Fri May 14 2021

   Valid 141700Z - 151200Z

   No changes. Previous discussion follows.

   ..Bentley.. 05/14/2021

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CDT Fri May 14 2021/

   An upper trough is forecast to amplify over the West today and
   potentially develop into a closed upper low over northern CA by
   Saturday morning. In response to this feature, a weak surface low is
   forecast to develop over southern NV. 

   ...Northern CA into southern OR...
   Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible across
   portions of northern CA into southern OR this afternoon and evening,
   as the upper trough moves southeastward and amplifies over the
   region. Relatively dry/well-mixed subcloud layers and low PW will
   limit the potential for wetting rainfall. With fuels running dry
   across the region, an isolated dry-thunderstorm area has been added
   to cover the threat for lightning-based ignitions. 

   In response to the approaching upper system and developing surface
   low, a modest increase in southwesterly surface winds is expected
   over portions of the Southwest. Elevated fire weather conditions
   will be possible across portions of the lower CO River basin, where
   sustained winds of greater than 15 mph are possible concurrent with
   minimum RH values of 10-20%. 

   ...Eastern ND into northern MN...
   Scattered thunderstorms are again expected this afternoon from
   eastern ND into northwest MN. While low-level moisture will remain
   relatively limited, an increase in PW (compared to Thursday) and
   slow storm motions should result in generally wet thunderstorms.
   However, with very dry fuels over the region, there may be a nonzero
   threat of lightning-based ignitions with strikes that occur away
   from the heavier precipitation cores.

   ...Please see for graphic product...


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