MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0400
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0351 AM CDT SUN APR 06 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...N/NERN TX
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 96...
   
   VALID 060851Z - 060945Z
   
   CORRECTED FOR WATCH TYPE
   
   THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL WILL PERSIST WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELL
   OVER NERN PORTION OF WATCH AREA FOR THE NEXT HALF HOUR OR SO.
   
   LATEST REGIONAL RADAR DATA SHOW LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS WITH A
   HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL CURRENTLY OVER LAMAR AND BOWIE
   COUNTIES IN NERN TX. THE BOWIE STORM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH THE
   THREAT OF LARGE HAIL DIMINISHING WITH TIME. HOWEVER...SUPERCELL
   TO THE W OVER LAMAR COUNTY WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A LARGE HAIL
   THREAT FOR THE NEXT HALF HOUR OR SO AS IT MOVES E AT 25KT.
   
   LATEST MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THESE STORMS ARE ON THE IMMEDIATE
   COOL SIDE OF WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
   NEAR SPS EWD THROUGH THE METROPLEX AND THEN INTO CNTRL LA.
   SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S TO THE S OF THE WARM
   FRONT BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO
   SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. MOREOVER...REGIONAL VWP DATA CONTINUE
   TO INDICATE LARGE LOOPING HODOGRAPHS INVOF WARM FRONT.
   
   PRIMARY QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTION CAN RE-INITIATE
   ALONG WARM FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 06Z RUC GUIDANCE
   SUGGESTS THAT STRONG FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALONG 50 KT
   LLJ AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM W-CNTRL TX INTO NRN OK WILL
   REMAIN TO THE N OF THE AREA THROUGH 12Z. THUS...IT APPEARS THAT
   THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR TO THE W ALONG
   DRYLINE AS SURGES EWD OUT OF WRN TX TOWARD 12Z.
   
   WW0096 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 09Z...BUT AREA WILL CONTINUE
   TO BE MONITORED FOR REDEVELOPMENT.
   
   ..MEAD.. 04/06/2003
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...OUN...SJT...
   
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