MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1174
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0609 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM/SWRN TX/TRANSPECOS REGION
   
   CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 
   
   VALID 312309Z - 010045Z
   
   SCATTERED SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND
   INTENSITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN NM INTO SWRN TX. EXPECT THESE
   TRENDS TO CONTINUE THRU THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH A PRIMARY
   THREAT OF SOME LARGE HAIL...GUSTY DAMAGING WINDS...AND AREAS OF VERY
   HEAVY RAINFALL. 
   
   REGIONAL/LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE ON
   THE INCREASE IN BOTH THE ERN PLAINS OF NM AS WELL AS IN PARTS OF THE
   TRANSPECOS REGION IN SWRN TX. THE ERN NM PLAINS ACTIVITY IS
   STRENGTHENING IN A REGION OF BETTER LOW-LVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN
   THE PROXIMITY OF A BOUNDARY LAYER STATIONARY FRONT THAT LIES FROM
   NORTH OF MIDLAND...NNWWD TO THE WEST OF CLOVIS...NWD INTO NERN NM.
   WEAKER 5-15 KT MID-LVL FLOW WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL OF THIS
   ACTIVITY AS IT SHIFTS SLOWLY NEWD TO THE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH
   A LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. 
   
   FURTHER SOUTH...ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EWD THRU THE
   TRANSPECOS REGION AS A NEWD MOVING IMPULSE PER WV IMAGERY MOVES INTO
   NRN MEXICO. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY YIELD GRADUALLY INCREASING
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THESE AREAS AND COULD LEAD TO SOME BETTER
   STORM ORGANIZATION ABOVE WEAK BUT PERSISTENT 5-15 SELY UPSLOPE FLOW.
   EXPECT SSEWD MOVING ACTIVITY WITH A PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT OF AREAS
   OF LARGE HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.
   
   ..NADEN.. 05/31/2003
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...
   
   29560222 30620210 31600230 32000278 32610375 33230411
   33750379 32820140 31389937 29370068